* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL902012 09/05/12 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 22 24 26 27 33 36 39 43 49 49 49 49 V (KT) LAND 20 22 27 28 30 34 36 39 44 50 49 49 49 V (KT) LGE mod 20 21 24 25 25 26 28 31 36 43 51 60 70 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 18 22 18 12 18 13 13 8 11 2 N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -2 -3 0 0 -3 1 -1 -1 0 N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 13 13 27 16 347 11 347 360 334 83 N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.9 28.0 28.1 28.2 28.3 28.6 28.9 29.2 29.4 29.5 29.5 29.4 29.0 POT. INT. (KT) 135 134 135 137 138 143 147 152 155 156 157 157 151 ADJ. POT. INT. 116 111 112 114 115 119 124 127 129 130 131 135 131 200 MB T (C) -50.9 -51.2 -51.1 -51.3 -51.2 -51.7 -51.9 -52.3 -52.3 -52.6 N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 9 8 12 13 10 11 10 11 10 9 N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 40 46 48 46 45 49 49 49 51 57 N/A N/A N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 6 7 8 6 6 8 6 6 5 6 LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -60 -39 -26 -38 -57 -31 -64 -32 -17 26 N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -2 -15 -7 3 -10 1 -17 0 19 7 N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 2 3 5 7 -6 1 -3 0 -3 1 N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) -8 0 33 55 9 29 93 145 203 262 290 260 223 LAT (DEG N) 30.7 30.4 30.1 29.8 29.4 28.9 28.3 27.9 27.6 27.2 26.8 26.8 27.1 LONG(DEG W) 87.9 88.3 88.6 88.9 89.2 89.9 90.5 91.4 92.0 92.4 92.2 91.3 89.5 STM SPEED (KT) 9 4 4 4 4 4 4 3 3 2 2 6 8 HEAT CONTENT 4 20 23 29 16 33 48 53 57 62 65 68 65 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):190/ 15 CX,CY: -2/-14 T-12 MAX WIND: 15 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 282 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 38.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 5. 11. 18. 23. 28. 31. 33. 35. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 2. 4. 6. 8. 10. 9. 8. 7. 7. 6. 5. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -6. -7. -7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 0. 0. 1. -1. -1. -3. -2. -2. -2. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -6. -7. -7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. 5. 6. 5. 4. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 6. 7. 13. 16. 19. 23. 29. 29. 29. 29. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL902012 INVEST 09/05/12 06 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 2.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 17.7 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.2 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : -6.2 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 93.6 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.7 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 57.8 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 18.4 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 26.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 13% is 1.1 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 9% is 1.1 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL902012 INVEST 09/05/2012 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)