* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL902012 08/03/12 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 31 34 37 40 45 51 54 56 57 57 56 55 V (KT) LAND 30 31 34 37 40 45 51 54 56 57 57 56 55 V (KT) LGE mod 30 31 32 34 36 41 48 53 58 60 61 60 57 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 20 15 8 6 7 7 9 6 8 12 19 31 21 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 3 6 4 5 2 7 8 5 8 5 7 SHEAR DIR 51 62 68 85 104 132 143 212 215 253 257 268 274 SST (C) 26.8 26.8 26.9 26.9 26.7 26.6 26.4 26.3 26.3 26.5 26.7 27.4 28.0 POT. INT. (KT) 123 123 124 124 121 120 118 118 118 121 123 131 139 ADJ. POT. INT. 122 121 121 121 117 115 113 114 115 118 120 128 134 200 MB T (C) -53.6 -53.8 -54.0 -53.9 -53.6 -53.6 -53.5 -53.4 -53.6 -53.7 -53.6 -53.7 -53.6 TH_E DEV (C) 5 6 6 5 5 5 6 6 7 7 9 9 10 700-500 MB RH 72 70 70 67 66 63 59 59 54 51 47 49 49 GFS VTEX (KT) 8 7 7 7 8 8 8 7 7 6 LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 6 7 4 12 23 55 71 90 102 91 47 11 -12 200 MB DIV 23 43 45 35 31 -6 -11 -1 -8 -20 21 9 55 700-850 TADV -16 -14 -8 -6 -4 -2 0 -2 1 6 12 22 8 LAND (KM) 943 1059 1180 1303 1429 1653 1889 1983 1809 1659 1580 1501 1342 LAT (DEG N) 12.8 13.3 13.7 14.2 14.6 15.0 15.4 15.7 16.3 17.0 18.1 19.4 21.0 LONG(DEG W) 26.0 27.2 28.4 29.6 30.8 32.9 35.1 37.5 40.4 43.5 46.8 50.2 53.2 STM SPEED (KT) 13 13 12 12 12 10 11 13 15 16 17 17 16 HEAT CONTENT 2 5 8 10 7 3 2 1 0 0 0 19 40 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 14 CX,CY: -13/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 516 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 24.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 50.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 1. 3. 5. 9. 14. 18. 21. 23. 24. 25. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 8. 8. 7. 3. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 5. 3. 1. 0. -1. -2. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -7. -8. -10. -11. -11. -11. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 4. 7. 10. 15. 21. 24. 26. 27. 27. 26. 25. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL902012 INVEST 08/03/12 18 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 2.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.7 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 24.9 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 35.4 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 90.5 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.7 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 68.8 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 6.4 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 48.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 19% is 1.5 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 12% is 1.5 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 8% is 1.5 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL902012 INVEST 08/03/2012 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)