* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL902012 08/03/12 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 31 33 35 38 44 47 50 52 53 54 55 55 V (KT) LAND 30 31 33 35 38 44 47 50 52 53 54 55 55 V (KT) LGE mod 30 31 32 33 35 39 45 51 56 61 63 63 61 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 23 18 13 10 7 12 8 10 11 13 10 17 16 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 1 5 5 8 3 7 4 4 1 7 4 5 SHEAR DIR 36 41 59 81 79 124 136 157 172 206 244 240 289 SST (C) 26.9 26.8 26.7 26.8 26.9 26.8 26.6 26.5 26.4 26.3 26.5 26.7 27.4 POT. INT. (KT) 124 123 122 123 124 122 120 119 119 118 121 123 131 ADJ. POT. INT. 123 121 119 120 120 117 114 114 115 115 119 121 127 200 MB T (C) -54.0 -53.6 -53.8 -53.8 -53.6 -53.5 -53.7 -53.2 -53.6 -53.3 -53.5 -53.4 -53.6 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 6 5 5 5 6 7 6 7 7 9 9 700-500 MB RH 74 73 72 72 68 66 62 61 59 57 52 49 50 GFS VTEX (KT) 10 9 8 7 8 9 9 7 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 9 9 9 8 14 46 67 84 99 99 74 39 5 200 MB DIV 35 30 39 48 21 -5 -29 -19 -9 -38 -14 -3 25 700-850 TADV -11 -14 -13 -8 -9 -5 -4 -1 2 7 4 12 6 LAND (KM) 805 908 1018 1138 1262 1483 1707 1911 1937 1777 1620 1541 1473 LAT (DEG N) 12.3 12.8 13.2 13.6 14.0 14.6 14.9 15.1 15.4 16.0 16.7 17.8 19.1 LONG(DEG W) 24.5 25.7 26.8 28.0 29.2 31.3 33.4 35.3 37.8 40.5 43.7 47.0 50.3 STM SPEED (KT) 13 12 12 12 12 10 10 11 13 14 16 17 16 HEAT CONTENT 8 2 3 9 10 6 4 5 6 0 0 0 19 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 15 CX,CY: -14/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 502 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 49.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 1. 3. 5. 9. 14. 18. 21. 23. 24. 25. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 4. 4. 4. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -3. -3. -3. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 6. 3. 1. 0. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -7. -9. -10. -12. -12. -13. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 5. 8. 14. 17. 20. 22. 23. 24. 25. 25. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL902012 INVEST 08/03/12 12 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 2.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.6 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 34.6 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 90.6 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.7 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 71.4 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.3 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 6.4 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 999.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL902012 INVEST 08/03/2012 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)