* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * IDA AL102015 09/26/15 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 34 35 37 43 47 51 53 56 58 62 64 V (KT) LAND 30 32 34 35 37 43 47 51 53 56 58 62 64 V (KT) LGE mod 30 32 33 34 35 39 42 46 49 52 56 60 64 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 20 19 18 18 13 14 12 9 12 11 13 14 19 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -3 -3 0 0 1 4 4 4 6 8 5 5 SHEAR DIR 276 272 255 258 262 224 261 244 295 340 344 332 8 SST (C) 28.8 29.0 29.2 29.3 29.4 29.4 29.4 29.4 29.3 29.3 29.3 29.6 29.8 POT. INT. (KT) 147 150 153 154 155 156 157 157 156 156 155 161 164 ADJ. POT. INT. 130 133 133 133 133 136 139 140 140 141 140 144 146 200 MB T (C) -54.5 -54.7 -54.7 -54.8 -55.0 -54.8 -55.3 -55.4 -55.4 -55.2 -55.3 -55.4 -55.5 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 10 11 10 10 9 9 9 10 10 11 11 700-500 MB RH 41 40 37 36 38 40 42 44 45 44 41 40 36 MODEL VTX (KT) 12 11 10 9 9 10 9 9 8 7 6 6 4 850 MB ENV VOR 26 16 6 2 7 32 31 30 19 10 -2 -9 -39 200 MB DIV -14 -5 -1 -2 20 9 -4 12 -23 -21 -28 -28 -42 700-850 TADV 0 0 1 0 0 -1 0 -4 0 -4 -4 -5 -3 LAND (KM) 2109 2093 2055 2022 1988 1908 1782 1638 1478 1310 1146 1024 924 LAT (DEG N) 23.0 23.5 23.9 24.1 24.3 23.9 23.3 22.8 22.4 22.1 21.9 22.2 22.6 LONG(DEG W) 45.8 46.3 46.8 47.2 47.6 48.3 49.4 50.7 52.2 53.8 55.4 56.8 58.1 STM SPEED (KT) 6 6 5 4 3 5 6 7 8 8 7 7 6 HEAT CONTENT 21 20 19 19 21 18 20 28 44 54 44 40 46 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):325/ 6 CX,CY: -2/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 720 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 28.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 26.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 1. 3. 6. 11. 16. 20. 24. 26. 28. 30. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 5. 5. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 7. 9. 11. 12. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 5. 7. 13. 17. 21. 23. 26. 28. 32. 34. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL102015 IDA 09/26/15 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 17.5 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 28.6 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 60.4 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 102.5 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.4 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 20.0 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -0.4 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 26.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 14% is 1.2 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 8% is 1.0 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.9 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL102015 IDA 09/26/15 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL102015 IDA 09/26/2015 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)