* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * IDA AL102015 09/25/15 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 25 25 26 30 35 38 41 43 47 52 55 V (KT) LAND 25 25 25 25 26 30 35 38 41 43 47 52 55 V (KT) LGE mod 25 23 22 22 22 23 24 27 28 30 32 DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 19 21 22 19 15 14 18 18 11 16 13 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -1 -2 -3 -4 -2 0 3 4 6 6 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 271 264 275 277 265 257 232 254 247 279 325 N/A N/A SST (C) 28.5 28.7 29.0 29.1 29.3 29.4 29.4 29.6 29.5 29.4 29.6 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 142 145 150 152 155 156 156 161 160 158 162 N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 125 129 134 134 135 133 133 142 144 143 147 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -54.2 -54.3 -54.5 -54.8 -54.7 -55.0 -54.9 -55.3 -55.3 -55.3 -55.2 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 9 9 10 10 9 8 8 9 9 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 42 42 42 41 39 40 41 40 42 44 41 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 13 13 12 11 10 9 10 9 9 8 7 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 40 38 26 12 2 19 23 20 25 21 22 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 1 1 -2 2 7 13 14 6 11 -19 -3 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 2 2 2 0 0 0 -1 -2 -5 0 -6 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 2069 2107 2120 2091 2063 2032 1979 1854 1673 1481 1308 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 22.3 22.8 23.4 24.0 24.5 25.3 25.4 24.6 23.3 22.8 23.1 N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 45.3 45.6 46.0 46.4 46.9 47.5 48.1 49.1 50.5 52.3 54.2 N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 5 6 7 7 6 4 4 7 9 8 9 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 20 21 21 21 22 27 24 20 25 41 40 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):350/ 4 CX,CY: 0/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 660 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 8.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 6. 11. 17. 22. 26. 30. 32. 33. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 5. 6. 5. 3. 1. -1. -1. -2. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. PERSISTENCE -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 8. 10. 11. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -8. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -7. -7. -7. -7. -6. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 5. 10. 13. 16. 18. 22. 27. 30. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL102015 IDA 09/25/15 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 19.4 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.7 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 62.0 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 106.4 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.5 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 21.0 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 1.8 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 6.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL102015 IDA 09/25/15 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL102015 IDA 09/25/2015 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)