* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * IDA AL102015 09/23/15 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 35 36 38 38 40 42 44 47 49 52 54 55 V (KT) LAND 35 35 36 38 38 40 42 44 47 49 52 54 55 V (KT) LGE mod 35 35 35 35 35 34 34 35 38 42 46 51 54 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 22 21 23 25 19 19 9 16 9 14 14 21 23 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 2 3 3 3 -2 0 -2 0 0 -1 2 -1 SHEAR DIR 291 289 285 283 272 286 284 286 274 271 240 253 247 SST (C) 28.2 28.2 28.2 28.2 28.2 28.6 29.0 29.2 29.3 29.4 29.3 29.3 29.5 POT. INT. (KT) 135 137 136 135 136 143 149 151 154 157 154 153 158 ADJ. POT. INT. 118 122 120 118 119 127 130 131 133 137 132 128 136 200 MB T (C) -53.5 -53.9 -54.2 -54.4 -54.1 -54.4 -54.4 -54.7 -54.6 -54.9 -55.1 -55.6 -55.5 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 8 9 9 10 10 10 10 10 9 8 700-500 MB RH 47 45 46 45 43 44 42 45 48 49 54 53 53 MODEL VTX (KT) 15 17 18 19 18 17 15 13 13 11 11 9 10 850 MB ENV VOR 52 62 66 62 49 39 28 19 12 0 25 8 0 200 MB DIV 8 0 4 26 41 13 11 1 5 1 -2 6 5 700-850 TADV 3 1 4 8 9 0 1 0 0 1 0 -1 -5 LAND (KM) 1760 1804 1848 1868 1887 1967 1992 1973 1963 1988 2055 2035 1956 LAT (DEG N) 19.9 20.2 20.5 20.7 20.8 21.7 22.6 23.0 23.4 24.3 25.9 26.1 25.3 LONG(DEG W) 46.8 46.5 46.2 46.1 46.0 46.2 46.9 47.4 47.6 47.6 47.5 47.8 48.3 STM SPEED (KT) 1 4 3 2 3 5 4 3 4 6 4 2 5 HEAT CONTENT 12 9 8 8 9 13 18 21 23 30 39 35 37 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):175/ 3 CX,CY: 0/ -2 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 648 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 23.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 24.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 2. 5. 9. 13. 16. 19. 21. 22. 23. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 8. 10. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 1. 0. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 3. 3. 5. 7. 9. 12. 14. 17. 19. 20. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL102015 IDA 09/23/15 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 21.9 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 23.9 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 65.0 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 84.2 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.3 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 9.2 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 15.8 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 22.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 12% is 1.0 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 7% is 0.9 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.8 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL102015 IDA 09/23/15 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL102015 IDA 09/23/2015 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)