* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * IDA AL102015 09/23/15 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 34 33 32 33 35 37 40 43 46 50 53 54 V (KT) LAND 35 34 33 32 33 35 37 40 43 46 50 53 54 V (KT) LGE mod 35 33 32 31 30 30 31 32 34 37 42 47 50 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 30 33 29 23 20 19 14 12 10 12 15 19 31 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 1 2 0 0 2 2 0 -2 -3 -3 0 -2 SHEAR DIR 285 294 301 294 284 300 276 302 240 287 259 265 251 SST (C) 28.5 28.4 28.3 28.2 28.1 28.0 28.2 28.4 28.9 29.2 29.2 29.0 28.7 POT. INT. (KT) 140 139 138 136 134 133 137 140 148 153 153 150 145 ADJ. POT. INT. 123 123 121 120 117 117 121 124 131 133 131 128 123 200 MB T (C) -53.6 -53.8 -53.9 -53.9 -54.1 -54.3 -54.1 -54.3 -54.3 -54.6 -54.5 -55.1 -55.3 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 8 8 8 9 9 9 9 9 8 7 700-500 MB RH 60 59 55 52 51 47 47 47 48 50 55 60 62 MODEL VTX (KT) 14 14 14 15 15 16 16 16 15 14 15 14 15 850 MB ENV VOR 16 24 39 49 58 56 40 18 11 10 15 20 7 200 MB DIV -7 -24 -15 0 0 12 16 -1 20 11 31 8 29 700-850 TADV -1 0 -1 0 0 3 0 0 0 -1 0 1 -1 LAND (KM) 1865 1866 1868 1879 1890 1928 2031 2127 2182 2144 2148 2204 2226 LAT (DEG N) 21.0 20.9 20.7 20.7 20.6 20.8 21.6 22.6 23.6 24.6 25.6 26.6 27.6 LONG(DEG W) 46.9 46.5 46.2 45.8 45.5 45.1 44.6 44.7 45.4 46.1 46.4 46.2 45.5 STM SPEED (KT) 3 4 3 3 2 3 5 5 6 5 5 5 6 HEAT CONTENT 11 10 9 8 8 10 19 38 44 40 41 37 21 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 90/ 2 CX,CY: 2/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 673 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 25.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 40.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 12. 15. 18. 20. 21. 21. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -3. -2. -3. -3. -3. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. PERSISTENCE -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 8. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -2. -3. -2. 0. 2. 5. 8. 11. 15. 18. 19. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL102015 IDA 09/23/15 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 27.1 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 25.3 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 68.6 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 85.9 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.3 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 9.2 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -9.2 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 34.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 9% is 0.8 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 6% is 0.7 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL102015 IDA 09/23/15 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL102015 IDA 09/23/2015 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)