* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL952015 08/04/15 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 38 41 43 47 52 57 59 60 56 47 37 28 V (KT) LAND 35 40 43 45 49 54 59 61 62 58 49 36 30 V (KT) LGE mod 35 39 42 43 45 49 52 49 46 41 38 33 37 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 23 13 18 20 24 31 36 48 43 34 37 35 32 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 4 0 0 4 1 3 6 10 10 8 2 0 SHEAR DIR 325 287 269 263 242 249 233 241 243 246 245 246 234 SST (C) 28.3 28.0 27.7 27.8 28.0 26.8 21.9 10.6 14.7 13.4 13.2 12.8 13.0 POT. INT. (KT) 142 139 136 139 142 128 94 73 77 75 74 71 71 ADJ. POT. INT. 123 123 123 126 130 118 88 72 74 73 71 69 68 200 MB T (C) -54.1 -54.2 -54.3 -54.2 -54.1 -54.1 -53.8 -53.9 -54.7 -54.3 -52.8 -51.2 -50.1 TH_E DEV (C) 11 12 8 8 9 7 6 2 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 47 50 52 54 55 50 38 34 37 51 62 67 70 MODEL VTX (KT) 7 7 7 6 7 8 11 16 24 26 23 19 17 850 MB ENV VOR -24 -47 -50 -39 -19 2 2 -5 67 87 64 63 87 200 MB DIV -6 2 20 33 49 37 75 40 47 40 19 31 -84 700-850 TADV 19 12 12 14 14 13 -10 19 -12 -33 -3 -15 -11 LAND (KM) -11 28 110 342 531 583 569 462 1195 1012 268 -71 163 LAT (DEG N) 33.9 34.5 35.1 35.9 36.7 38.6 41.7 45.4 48.8 51.5 54.5 57.4 60.6 LONG(DEG W) 78.7 76.8 74.8 72.0 69.3 63.0 56.0 47.4 36.7 25.0 14.0 4.8 -1.9 STM SPEED (KT) 14 17 21 24 25 29 34 38 40 38 33 26 23 HEAT CONTENT 4 5 18 15 18 8 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 45/ 11 CX,CY: 8/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 826 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 26.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 33.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 9. 10. 10. 10. 8. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 5. 6. 7. 6. 0. -6. -10. -13. -16. -20. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -3. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 6. 9. 11. 13. 16. 18. 19. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 5. 5. 3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -8. -11. -15. -18. -21. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 3. 7. 15. 16. 12. 8. 5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -3. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 8. 12. 17. 22. 24. 25. 21. 12. 2. -7. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL952015 INVEST 08/04/15 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 10.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 2.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 19.6 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 26.3 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 60.0 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 89.8 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.4 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 12.0 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 19.6 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 29.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 15% is 1.2 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 8% is 1.1 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 5% is 1.0 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL952015 INVEST 08/04/15 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL952015 INVEST 08/04/2015 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)