* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL952015 08/04/15 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 22 24 26 27 30 37 42 42 42 41 35 23 V (KT) LAND 20 24 23 24 25 31 38 43 43 43 42 35 24 V (KT) LGE mod 20 22 23 24 24 28 30 34 36 36 36 36 35 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 26 35 29 14 9 22 31 41 54 46 42 44 41 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -4 -1 0 5 -1 -2 3 -2 12 9 11 14 SHEAR DIR 313 321 326 325 265 257 235 228 217 232 260 267 267 SST (C) 27.6 27.8 27.9 28.4 28.3 27.7 27.6 23.9 12.3 11.8 12.2 13.3 13.1 POT. INT. (KT) 130 132 135 143 143 138 138 104 73 74 74 75 74 ADJ. POT. INT. 109 110 114 123 126 127 129 97 72 72 73 72 71 200 MB T (C) -53.7 -53.8 -54.0 -53.9 -53.9 -54.3 -54.0 -53.5 -52.8 -53.2 -54.1 -53.7 -51.4 TH_E DEV (C) 10 8 8 10 10 6 7 5 2 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 49 47 48 50 52 51 52 49 44 42 45 57 64 MODEL VTX (KT) 8 8 7 7 6 5 7 10 14 20 23 21 17 850 MB ENV VOR -51 -50 -48 -34 -51 -42 5 26 35 79 103 61 40 200 MB DIV 21 6 -7 -15 11 30 54 53 48 51 27 19 -3 700-850 TADV 2 -4 -1 12 12 21 0 0 -21 -9 -44 0 5 LAND (KM) -4 3 -7 -6 -6 225 569 526 254 740 1413 529 76 LAT (DEG N) 31.5 32.0 32.5 33.3 34.0 35.6 37.6 40.6 44.5 48.5 51.7 54.0 56.0 LONG(DEG W) 81.3 81.0 80.6 79.4 78.2 73.4 66.4 59.6 52.2 42.9 30.9 18.1 6.7 STM SPEED (KT) 7 6 9 13 17 26 30 32 36 40 41 37 34 HEAT CONTENT 4 15 19 28 34 14 25 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 45/ 8 CX,CY: 6/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 737 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 23.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 29.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 5. 11. 17. 21. 23. 24. 24. 25. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 2. 6. 8. 9. 11. 9. 3. -5. -11. -16. -20. -27. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 2. 4. 7. 9. 11. 13. 14. 15. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -6. -9. -13. -16. -19. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -2. 1. 4. 9. 11. 9. 5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 6. 7. 10. 17. 22. 22. 22. 21. 15. 3. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL952015 INVEST 08/04/15 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 22.6 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 23.8 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 59.6 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 96.6 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.4 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 20.0 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 3.2 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 26.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 12% is 1.0 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 7% is 0.9 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL952015 INVEST 08/04/15 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL952015 INVEST 08/04/2015 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED