* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL952015 08/03/15 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 28 29 30 32 34 41 47 51 52 52 51 V (KT) LAND 25 26 26 26 30 31 34 40 47 51 51 52 51 V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 26 26 29 30 32 36 42 49 53 56 59 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 24 22 21 25 23 6 7 12 13 13 18 15 17 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -4 -4 -2 -2 -2 -2 -3 -6 -6 -6 -8 -6 SHEAR DIR 329 334 332 334 351 360 306 229 261 283 318 324 343 SST (C) 28.7 28.2 27.9 27.7 27.7 28.1 28.6 28.0 27.5 27.2 27.1 27.0 26.9 POT. INT. (KT) 144 137 133 130 130 137 146 137 130 125 123 121 120 ADJ. POT. INT. 119 114 110 107 108 115 124 118 110 104 101 100 99 200 MB T (C) -53.9 -54.0 -53.7 -53.8 -53.9 -53.4 -53.7 -53.6 -54.1 -54.1 -54.5 -54.2 -53.8 TH_E DEV (C) 6 9 11 9 8 11 7 10 8 8 7 8 9 700-500 MB RH 52 52 53 51 51 54 51 49 50 54 63 65 66 MODEL VTX (KT) 10 9 9 8 8 7 7 8 11 13 LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -42 -33 -45 -51 -40 -38 -66 -72 -86 -77 -67 -35 23 200 MB DIV 19 -13 0 5 -14 -17 9 -11 -9 -11 1 15 22 700-850 TADV 6 3 -2 0 3 4 1 4 -5 3 3 3 4 LAND (KM) -65 -101 -51 -17 15 93 130 248 419 563 664 701 699 LAT (DEG N) 30.0 30.2 30.3 30.6 30.8 31.6 32.4 32.8 32.6 32.5 32.4 32.8 33.7 LONG(DEG W) 82.9 82.4 81.9 81.6 81.3 80.1 78.3 75.3 72.8 70.9 69.7 69.0 68.6 STM SPEED (KT) 4 5 4 4 5 8 11 12 9 6 4 4 4 HEAT CONTENT 36 20 3 5 15 18 21 13 7 8 9 8 8 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 75/ 3 CX,CY: 3/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 650 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 27.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 40.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 9. 15. 19. 22. 24. 24. 25. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 2. 4. 6. 7. 8. 8. 7. 6. 5. 4. 3. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 1. 3. 3. 4. 4. 3. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -5. -5. -6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -4. -1. 0. 0. 0. -1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -6. -8. -9. -9. -9. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 4. 5. 7. 9. 16. 22. 26. 27. 27. 26. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL952015 INVEST 08/03/15 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 23.0 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 27.6 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 58.2 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 86.6 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.3 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 15.8 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -0.6 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 36.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 10% is 0.8 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 6% is 0.8 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL952015 INVEST 08/03/15 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL952015 INVEST 08/03/2015 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)