* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * EIGHT AL082015 09/09/15 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 34 36 39 44 52 58 60 54 46 36 30 V (KT) LAND 30 32 34 36 39 44 52 58 60 54 46 36 30 V (KT) LGE mod 30 31 31 33 34 37 44 51 50 45 42 40 41 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 19 19 15 14 15 5 5 17 32 39 45 52 42 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -4 -4 -3 -5 -3 -2 1 4 1 -1 15 18 SHEAR DIR 219 218 212 197 190 216 238 261 257 278 295 301 268 SST (C) 28.7 28.5 28.3 27.9 27.6 27.4 26.5 19.9 15.4 13.8 17.0 16.6 16.9 POT. INT. (KT) 143 142 140 136 132 131 122 82 73 71 79 80 80 ADJ. POT. INT. 116 117 118 116 114 114 107 76 69 69 75 77 77 200 MB T (C) -54.8 -54.6 -54.8 -54.7 -54.6 -54.8 -55.0 -55.6 -56.2 -56.8 -57.1 -54.7 -51.9 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 9 8 9 8 5 0 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 44 46 49 50 50 52 57 68 65 58 47 47 58 MODEL VTX (KT) 13 13 13 13 12 10 10 13 15 13 10 7 7 850 MB ENV VOR -19 -18 -26 -22 -34 -36 8 -7 -44 -70 -33 38 93 200 MB DIV -14 -2 0 -5 4 22 57 31 40 0 -33 -22 20 700-850 TADV 5 5 11 10 9 16 8 53 31 -2 -28 -42 -4 LAND (KM) 1451 1444 1391 1274 1158 880 578 312 129 567 1160 1240 412 LAT (DEG N) 30.6 31.1 31.6 32.7 33.8 36.6 40.3 44.0 46.9 47.9 47.1 47.2 48.0 LONG(DEG W) 60.6 60.6 60.6 60.6 60.6 60.4 58.8 55.6 51.3 45.2 37.4 25.8 11.5 STM SPEED (KT) 2 5 8 11 12 17 21 21 21 23 33 44 48 HEAT CONTENT 15 12 9 7 11 19 11 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):115/ 3 CX,CY: 3/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 545 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 29.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 32.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 8. 11. 13. 14. 14. 13. 13. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 5. 6. 9. 10. 10. 8. 4. 0. -6. -11. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 5. 7. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 9. 12. 14. 14. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -5. -8. -12. -16. -19. -21. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. -3. -4. -2. 0. -2. -5. -8. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -5. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 6. 9. 14. 22. 28. 30. 24. 16. 6. 0. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL082015 EIGHT 09/09/15 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 16.1 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 29.7 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 54.2 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 86.2 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.3 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 10.8 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -3.4 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 29.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 11% is 0.9 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 6% is 0.8 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.8 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL082015 EIGHT 09/09/15 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL082015 EIGHT 09/09/2015 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)