* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * DANNY AL042015 08/24/15 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 33 32 32 32 33 33 36 40 44 48 52 55 V (KT) LAND 35 33 32 32 32 33 33 31 37 41 45 49 51 V (KT) LGE mod 35 32 30 30 29 29 29 26 30 DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 14 15 13 9 14 16 19 18 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -2 -2 -2 -2 0 0 0 -2 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 224 244 255 231 221 238 223 241 230 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.2 28.3 28.4 28.4 28.5 28.5 28.4 28.6 29.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 140 142 143 143 145 145 143 146 154 N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 137 139 140 140 142 141 138 140 147 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.3 -53.3 -53.4 -53.2 -53.3 -53.6 -53.3 -53.6 -52.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 11 11 11 13 13 13 14 14 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 39 41 41 41 40 40 38 36 38 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 7 8 7 7 6 5 2 2 3 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 12 15 5 12 12 4 5 -8 -28 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 11 12 15 10 -3 -27 -19 -10 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -6 -6 -6 -5 -4 -5 -6 0 -2 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 564 557 477 352 240 126 97 -8 34 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 15.6 15.8 16.0 16.2 16.3 16.8 17.5 18.2 18.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 59.3 60.6 61.9 63.2 64.5 67.1 69.5 71.9 74.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 13 13 13 13 13 12 12 12 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 64 48 29 35 36 59 46 13 70 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 13 CX,CY: -12/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 615 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 16.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 11. 15. 19. 22. 24. 25. 26. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 1. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -2. -3. -6. -8. -11. -13. -15. -17. -19. -21. PERSISTENCE -3. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. -5. -3. -1. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 7. 8. 9. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. -3. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. -7. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. -5. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. 1. 5. 9. 13. 17. 20. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL042015 DANNY 08/24/15 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -10.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.4 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.7 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.9 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 60.4 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 104.6 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.4 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 42.4 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 9.0 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 13.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL042015 DANNY 08/24/15 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL042015 DANNY 08/24/2015 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED