* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * DANNY AL042015 08/22/15 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 85 79 76 73 71 68 64 61 59 59 58 59 59 V (KT) LAND 85 79 76 73 71 68 64 61 59 58 58 53 47 V (KT) LGE mod 85 79 75 73 71 69 68 66 66 65 66 60 65 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 12 13 11 14 14 13 16 12 16 12 18 15 17 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -1 0 0 1 0 0 -2 -1 0 -1 -2 -3 SHEAR DIR 236 244 233 224 228 203 226 239 231 232 239 253 265 SST (C) 27.1 27.1 27.3 27.5 27.7 28.1 28.3 28.5 28.6 28.6 28.5 28.8 29.3 POT. INT. (KT) 125 126 128 131 134 139 142 145 146 146 145 149 158 ADJ. POT. INT. 120 121 124 128 130 135 137 139 139 139 137 142 150 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -53.2 -53.1 -53.2 -53.5 -53.5 -53.5 -53.5 -53.6 -53.5 -53.5 -53.5 -53.0 TH_E DEV (C) 8 9 10 10 10 11 11 12 13 14 14 15 14 700-500 MB RH 42 40 40 39 39 37 38 37 38 39 38 38 42 MODEL VTX (KT) 10 10 10 9 9 8 8 7 5 4 3 3 3 850 MB ENV VOR 4 5 3 7 7 4 3 -11 -27 -23 -41 -44 -34 200 MB DIV -9 -1 3 -2 7 15 3 0 -25 -23 -5 -3 24 700-850 TADV 2 5 0 -5 -4 1 -3 -1 0 -1 0 2 -1 LAND (KM) 1109 1098 1057 953 860 707 606 342 87 34 15 24 -12 LAT (DEG N) 15.0 15.3 15.5 15.8 16.0 16.3 16.8 17.4 18.1 18.8 19.5 20.0 20.4 LONG(DEG W) 50.3 51.4 52.5 53.8 55.1 57.7 60.2 62.6 64.9 67.3 69.7 72.2 74.8 STM SPEED (KT) 10 11 12 13 13 12 12 12 11 12 12 12 12 HEAT CONTENT 10 12 14 18 21 33 41 29 34 68 45 46 81 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 9 CX,CY: -7/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 100 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 545 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 46.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -5. -9. -12. -15. -17. -18. -20. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -4. -5. -5. -5. -3. -1. 1. 2. 2. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -11. -13. -15. -17. -18. -19. PERSISTENCE -3. -4. -5. -5. -4. -4. -5. -4. -2. -1. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -9. -9. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 0. 0. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -6. -9. -12. -14. -17. -21. -24. -26. -26. -27. -26. -26. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL042015 DANNY 08/22/15 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -15.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 1.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.7 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.8 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.7 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 61.4 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 39.4 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 15.0 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -0.4 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 42.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 9% is 0.8 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 6% is 0.8 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 4% is 1.0 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL042015 DANNY 08/22/15 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL042015 DANNY 08/22/2015 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 10 5( 15) 4( 18) 3( 20) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)