* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * DANNY AL042015 08/20/15 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 60 63 66 68 69 69 67 64 62 59 57 54 52 V (KT) LAND 60 63 66 68 69 69 67 64 62 59 57 54 52 V (KT) LGE mod 60 64 68 72 74 78 77 74 71 69 69 69 69 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 3 1 1 2 2 5 15 14 11 13 18 14 12 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -3 -4 -2 0 1 -3 0 2 -1 -1 -1 -1 SHEAR DIR 341 3 151 272 264 223 255 258 246 226 241 236 251 SST (C) 27.7 27.5 27.4 27.3 27.2 27.1 27.1 27.5 27.8 28.2 28.4 28.6 28.5 POT. INT. (KT) 133 130 128 127 126 126 126 130 135 141 144 145 143 ADJ. POT. INT. 130 126 123 120 120 121 121 125 131 140 142 138 135 200 MB T (C) -53.1 -52.8 -52.8 -52.9 -52.9 -52.7 -53.1 -53.2 -53.6 -53.5 -53.8 -53.4 -53.4 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 7 8 8 10 9 11 11 12 12 700-500 MB RH 53 54 52 52 50 47 44 40 43 41 41 41 46 MODEL VTX (KT) 14 13 13 13 13 12 12 10 10 8 9 7 6 850 MB ENV VOR 12 10 16 13 10 8 1 4 1 2 -8 1 8 200 MB DIV -3 -20 -23 -7 -8 -6 6 -10 6 -17 -29 -27 4 700-850 TADV -6 -4 -2 -1 0 1 5 -3 2 -2 -2 -1 0 LAND (KM) 1191 1177 1162 1154 1152 1139 1101 952 775 629 425 178 100 LAT (DEG N) 12.3 12.8 13.2 13.6 14.0 14.8 15.3 15.6 15.7 16.0 16.8 17.1 17.1 LONG(DEG W) 44.4 45.2 46.0 46.6 47.3 49.2 51.5 53.7 55.9 58.7 62.0 64.5 66.2 STM SPEED (KT) 10 9 8 7 9 11 11 11 12 15 15 10 9 HEAT CONTENT 11 11 14 19 21 13 13 17 26 45 33 39 57 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 560 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 37.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 5. 8. 9. 9. 10. 10. 9. 9. 9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -6. -8. -10. -12. -14. -16. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -4. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -7. -9. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 8. 9. 9. 7. 4. 2. -1. -3. -6. -8. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL042015 DANNY 08/20/15 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 10.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 2.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 1.9 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.6 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.9 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 67.8 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 63.7 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 15.2 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -12.2 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 29.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 21% is 1.8 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 14% is 1.8 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 12% is 2.7 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL042015 DANNY 08/20/15 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL042015 DANNY 08/20/2015 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 3( 3) 3( 6) 3( 9) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)