* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * DANNY AL042015 08/19/15 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 47 50 54 56 62 67 71 74 73 75 75 73 V (KT) LAND 45 47 50 54 56 62 67 71 74 73 75 75 73 V (KT) LGE mod 45 46 49 52 55 64 74 81 85 85 84 84 83 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 8 7 5 6 8 3 1 4 5 7 5 11 12 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 2 2 -1 -1 -3 -1 -3 -3 1 1 3 1 SHEAR DIR 73 81 74 73 95 126 121 269 245 226 163 198 213 SST (C) 28.2 28.1 28.0 27.8 27.7 27.5 27.3 27.2 27.3 27.6 28.1 28.3 28.4 POT. INT. (KT) 139 138 136 133 132 130 128 127 128 132 139 142 143 ADJ. POT. INT. 137 135 133 129 128 125 124 122 124 128 136 139 139 200 MB T (C) -52.5 -52.9 -53.3 -53.2 -52.6 -52.9 -52.2 -52.6 -52.3 -52.5 -52.5 -52.7 -52.4 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 7 7 8 8 9 9 10 10 11 700-500 MB RH 65 65 61 58 57 56 53 46 42 39 37 38 40 MODEL VTX (KT) 16 17 16 17 16 16 16 16 16 15 16 17 15 850 MB ENV VOR 15 20 8 5 7 18 21 19 17 27 20 18 20 200 MB DIV 75 87 67 14 -12 -15 -12 0 23 11 21 0 -5 700-850 TADV -11 -10 -7 -6 -4 -1 -1 2 1 0 0 0 3 LAND (KM) 1344 1291 1243 1201 1164 1108 1075 1052 1037 858 727 643 363 LAT (DEG N) 11.4 11.7 11.9 12.1 12.3 12.9 13.7 14.4 14.9 15.5 16.2 16.6 16.9 LONG(DEG W) 41.5 42.3 43.2 44.0 44.8 46.4 48.2 50.2 52.4 54.7 57.2 59.9 62.6 STM SPEED (KT) 9 9 9 8 8 9 10 11 11 12 13 14 12 HEAT CONTENT 12 11 11 12 12 14 16 11 13 22 29 41 29 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 9 CX,CY: -8/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 584 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 58.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 10. 11. 13. 14. 14. 15. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 9. 11. 13. 14. 15. 14. 14. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 6. 5. 3. 2. 0. -1. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 9. 11. 17. 22. 26. 29. 28. 30. 30. 28. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL042015 DANNY 08/19/15 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.9 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.5 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.9 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 70.4 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 87.2 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.3 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 11.6 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 46.2 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 36.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 21% is 1.8 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 12% is 1.6 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 7% is 1.6 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 7% is 2.3 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL042015 DANNY 08/19/15 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL042015 DANNY 08/19/2015 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED