*   ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST       *
                    * GOES PROXY USED,      OHC AVAILABLE       *
                    *      ANDREA  AL012013  06/05/13  18 UTC   *

TIME (HR)          0     6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72    84    96   108   120
V (KT) NO LAND    35    38    41    43    45    44    47    41    39    25   DIS   DIS   DIS
V (KT) LAND       35    38    41    43    45    39    41    35    33    20   DIS   DIS   DIS
V (KT) LGE mod    35    38    40    41    41    36    35    33    31    27    25    23    24
Storm Type      TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  EXTP  EXTP  EXTP  EXTP  EXTP  EXTP

SHEAR (KT)        22    28    31    25    29    28    35    48    59    84    82    53    34
SHEAR ADJ (KT)     1     2     2     6     6     0     4    -1     3    -7    -5     6    10
SHEAR DIR        253   234   239   233   229   231   231   241   244   257   263   271   259
SST (C)         27.3  27.0  26.5  25.7  25.0  25.0  24.4  17.6  10.5   7.0   5.0  10.1  14.2
POT. INT. (KT)   126   124   119   112   106   108   105    78    71    70    69    70    72
ADJ. POT. INT.   110   110   106   100    96    99    97    75    69    69    68    68    69
200 MB T (C)   -52.3 -52.1 -52.6 -53.0 -52.5 -52.6 -52.9 -53.1 -52.7 -51.9 -50.7 -48.8 -47.5
TH_E DEV (C)       8     8     7     7     8     5     6     0     0     0     0     0     0
700-500 MB RH     64    65    63    66    69    75    71    68    65    62    49    49    47
GFS VTEX (KT)     13    13    14    14    15    12    15    14    18    17    12     8     6
850 MB ENV VOR    22    19     2    17    63    28    67    79   113    56    51    76    91
200 MB DIV        93    98   102    84    83    75   112    60    52    22    -5    -9    -1
700-850 TADV      13    12    16    28    38    33    54    45   110    85   -21   -28   -30
LAND (KM)        398   366   284   167    80    71    18   126   190    14    65   664  1213
LAT (DEG N)     25.3  xx.x  xx.x  xx.x  xx.x  xx.x  xx.x  xx.x  xx.x  xx.x  xx.x  xx.x  xx.x
LONG(DEG W)     86.6 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x
STM SPEED (KT)     6     9    11    12    14    19    24    27    29    31    30    26    25
HEAT CONTENT      11    14    11     0     0     0     0     0     0     0     0     0     0

  FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI      INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 10/  3      CX,CY:   1/  3
  T-12 MAX WIND:  25            PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB):  566  (MEAN=623)
  GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV.  50-200 KM RAD:  17.2 (MEAN=14.5)
  % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C    50-200 KM RAD:  48.0 (MEAN=65.0)

                        INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
                         6   12   18   24   36   48   60   72   84   96  108  120
                        ----------------------------------------------------------
  SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE     1.   2.   3.   4.   6.   8.   9.  11.  12.  12.  13.  14.
  SST POTENTIAL          0.   1.   1.   1.   2.   4.   6.   8.   8.   8.   6.   6.
  VERTICAL SHEAR MAG     1.   2.   2.   3.   3.   0.  -6. -13. -23. -32. -37. -40.
  VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ     0.   0.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -2.  -2.  -2.  -1.   0.   0.  -1.
  VERTICAL SHEAR DIR     0.   0.   0.   0.   1.   3.   5.   7.   9.  11.  13.  14.
  PERSISTENCE            2.   3.   4.   5.   5.   4.   4.   3.   2.   1.   0.  -1.
  200/250 MB TEMP.       0.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -2.  -2.  -2.  -2.  -3.  -4.  -7.
  THETA_E EXCESS         0.   0.  -1.  -1.  -2.  -4.  -6. -10. -14. -17. -20. -23.
  700-500 MB RH          0.   0.   0.   0.  -1.  -1.  -2.  -2.  -2.  -2.  -2.  -1.
  GFS VORTEX TENDENCY    0.   0.   0.   1.  -2.   1.   0.   3.   2.  -3.  -7.  -8.
  850 MB ENV VORTICITY   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   1.   1.   2.   3.   3.   4.   4.
  200 MB DIVERGENCE      0.   1.   2.   2.   4.   5.   6.   6.   5.   4.   3.   2.
  850-700 T ADVEC        0.   0.   0.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -2.  -2.  -3.  -5.
  ZONAL STORM MOTION     0.   0.   0.   0.  -1.  -1.  -2.  -2.  -3.  -3.  -4.  -4.
  STEERING LEVEL PRES    0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   1.   1.   1.   1.   1.   0.   0.
  DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.
  GOES PREDICTORS        0.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -2.  -2.  -3.  -3.  -3.  -3.  -3.  -2.
  OCEAN HEAT CONTENT     0.   0.   0.   0.   0.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.
                        ----------------------------------------------------------
  TOTAL CHANGE           3.   6.   8.  10.   9.  12.   6.   4. -10. -27. -43. -55.

   ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL012013     ANDREA 06/05/13  18 UTC **
 
 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT):  10.0 Range:-45.0 to  30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.7/  2.4
 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) :  27.3 Range: 26.2 to   3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.0/ -0.1
 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 Range: 34.1 to   3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0
 D200 (10**7s-1)       :  92.0 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.6/  1.3
 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT)   :  69.3 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.4/  0.4
 850-700 MB REL HUM (%):  74.2 Range: 56.0 to  85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.6/  0.4
 Heat content (KJ/cm2) :   7.2 Range:  0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.1/  0.0
 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 999.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0
 
 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold=   999% is 999.0 times the sample mean(12.8%)
 Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold=   999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 8.4%)
 Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold=   999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 5.0%)
 Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold=   999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 3.4%)

** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL012013     ANDREA 06/05/2013  18 UTC **
TIME(HR)   0-12  12-24(0-24)  24-36(0-36)  36-48(0-48)
CLIMO(%)     0      0(  0)       0(  0)       0(  0)     <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY
PROB(%)      0      0(  0)       0(  0)       0(  0)     PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED