*   ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST       *
                    * GOES AVAILABLE,       OHC AVAILABLE       *
                    *     ALBERTO  AL012012  05/19/12  18 UTC   *

TIME (HR)          0     6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72    84    96   108   120
V (KT) NO LAND    40    44    47    50    53    55    57    59    58    55    52    49    47
V (KT) LAND       40    44    47    50    53    55    57    59    58    55    52    49    47
V (KT) LGE mod    40    44    47    49    50    53    55    57    57    56    54    51    49
Storm Type      EXTP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  EXTP  EXTP  EXTP  EXTP  EXTP  EXTP  EXTP

SHEAR (KT)        36    39    29    23    30    23    25    25    38    53    37    20     7
SHEAR ADJ (KT)    -2     0     0     0    -1    -3    -2    -6    -7   -13     0    -2     0
SHEAR DIR        236   235   243   239   238   253   246   255   249   244   240   275   330
SST (C)         24.8  24.8  24.8  24.8  24.7  24.6  24.1  23.2  22.8  22.6  22.5  20.0  16.7
POT. INT. (KT)    99    99    99    99    98    99    97    91    90    89    89    79    72
ADJ. POT. INT.    83    82    82    83    82    84    83    79    78    77    78    72    67
200 MB T (C)   -57.2 -57.2 -57.0 -56.5 -55.9 -54.8 -55.0 -55.9 -56.5 -57.0 -57.4 -58.0 -59.0
TH_E DEV (C)       4     4     2     1     5     3     5     3     5     4     5     3     2
700-500 MB RH     42    45    45    44    45    46    48    53    55    53    48    50    46
GFS VTEX (KT)      7     6  LOST  LOST  LOST  LOST  LOST  LOST  LOST  LOST  LOST  LOST  LOST
850 MB ENV VOR    45    44    52    62    88    99   106    78    36    13     4   -37   -69
200 MB DIV        26    18    16    40    36    34    28    17    30    51    16    11   -41
700-850 TADV      -4    -7    -1     0    -1     0    -1     1     2     0     5     0     1
LAND (KM)        190   187   182   166   150   140    97    91   151   281   404   435   450
LAT (DEG N)     32.3  xx.x  xx.x  xx.x  xx.x  xx.x  xx.x  xx.x  xx.x  xx.x  xx.x  xx.x  xx.x
LONG(DEG W)     77.6 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x
STM SPEED (KT)     2     1     1     2     1     4     7     7     8     8     9    11    12
HEAT CONTENT       0     0     0     0     0     0     0     0     0     0     0     0     0

  FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI      INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):220/  3      CX,CY:  -1/ -1
  T-12 MAX WIND:  30            PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB):  756  (MEAN=623)
  GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV.  50-200 KM RAD:  25.1 (MEAN=14.5)
  % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C    50-200 KM RAD:  48.0 (MEAN=65.0)

                        INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
                         6   12   18   24   36   48   60   72   84   96  108  120
                        ----------------------------------------------------------
  SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE     1.   2.   3.   4.   6.   8.   9.  11.  12.  12.  13.  13.
  SST POTENTIAL         -1.  -2.  -3.  -4.  -5.  -4.  -3.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -2.  -1.
  VERTICAL SHEAR MAG     1.   2.   3.   3.   3.   0.  -4.  -8. -14. -18. -19. -18.
  VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ     0.   0.   0.   0.   1.   1.   2.   3.   4.   4.   4.   3.
  VERTICAL SHEAR DIR     0.   1.   2.   2.   4.   5.   7.   9.  11.  13.  15.  14.
  PERSISTENCE            2.   3.   4.   5.   5.   4.   4.   3.   2.   1.   0.   0.
  200/250 MB TEMP.       2.   4.   6.   8.  11.  14.  16.  18.  21.  23.  24.  26.
  THETA_E EXCESS         0.  -1.  -3.  -3.  -5.  -7.  -9. -12. -15. -18. -20. -23.
  700-500 MB RH          0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.
  GFS VORTEX TENDENCY    0.   0.   0.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -2.  -2.  -2.  -3.  -3.  -3.
  850 MB ENV VORTICITY   0.   0.   0.   1.   2.   3.   4.   4.   4.   4.   3.   2.
  200 MB DIVERGENCE      0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   1.   1.   0.   0.
  850-700 T ADVEC        0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.
  ZONAL STORM MOTION     0.   0.   0.   0.   0.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -2.  -2.  -2.  -3.
  STEERING LEVEL PRES    0.   0.   0.  -1.  -1.  -2.  -2.  -3.  -3.  -2.  -2.  -1.
  DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK   0.   0.   0.   0.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.
  GOES PREDICTORS       -1.  -1.  -2.  -2.  -2.  -2.  -2.  -2.  -2.  -1.  -1.  -1.
  OCEAN HEAT CONTENT     0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.
                        ----------------------------------------------------------
  TOTAL CHANGE           4.   7.  10.  13.  15.  17.  19.  18.  15.  12.   9.   7.

   ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL012012    ALBERTO 05/19/12  18 UTC **
 
 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT):  10.0 Range:-45.0 to  30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.7/  2.4
 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) :  31.4 Range: 26.2 to   3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.0/  0.0
 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP :  25.1 Range: 34.1 to   3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.3/  0.6
 D200 (10**7s-1)       :  27.2 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.3/  0.5
 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT)   :  42.3 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.1/  0.1
 850-700 MB REL HUM (%):  57.6 Range: 56.0 to  85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.1/  0.0
 Heat content (KJ/cm2) :   0.0 Range:  0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.0/  0.0
 % area w/pixels <-30 C:  44.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.3/  0.1
 
 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold=     6% is   0.5 times the sample mean(12.8%)
 Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold=     3% is   0.3 times the sample mean( 8.4%)
 Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold=     2% is   0.3 times the sample mean( 5.0%)
 Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold=     1% is   0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%)

   ##         ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL012012    ALBERTO 05/19/12  18 UTC         ##
   ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5                          ##
   ## AHI=  0   (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##

** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL012012    ALBERTO 05/19/2012  18 UTC **
TIME(HR)   0-12  12-24(0-24)  24-36(0-36)  36-48(0-48)
CLIMO(%)     0      0(  0)       0(  0)       0(  0)     <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY
PROB(%)      0      0(  0)       0(  0)       0(  0)     <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)