* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL992013 10/17/13 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 34 34 35 36 41 41 37 39 37 33 29 V (KT) LAND 30 32 34 34 35 36 41 41 37 39 37 31 32 V (KT) LGE mod 30 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 37 36 36 31 34 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 15 26 27 18 15 21 38 36 45 34 32 25 32 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 0 -2 -2 0 2 0 -1 -10 1 4 2 14 SHEAR DIR 347 356 355 353 325 288 293 308 328 316 307 261 227 SST (C) 26.1 26.0 26.0 25.9 25.8 25.4 24.0 23.3 22.7 22.4 20.9 19.3 18.9 POT. INT. (KT) 114 113 114 114 115 114 106 102 98 95 88 82 81 ADJ. POT. INT. 97 96 97 99 102 106 101 98 94 91 83 77 75 200 MB T (C) -56.3 -56.0 -55.7 -55.7 -55.8 -55.9 -56.2 -56.9 -57.9 -58.6 -58.3 -57.6 -56.3 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 6 6 5 4 2 2 2 4 2 3 1 700-500 MB RH 53 53 54 53 54 57 59 58 49 42 52 51 61 GFS VTEX (KT) 12 11 10 8 7 7 13 14 14 20 20 20 21 850 MB ENV VOR 2 -12 -21 -49 -55 -66 -41 -30 -27 -29 -13 12 23 200 MB DIV -23 -26 -1 -7 0 38 7 15 -14 34 39 44 59 700-850 TADV 10 7 6 8 17 23 33 61 59 29 47 98 36 LAND (KM) 1064 1025 977 945 911 962 1084 1696 1639 968 283 -195 107 LAT (DEG N) 33.1 33.9 34.6 35.4 36.1 37.8 38.2 37.4 35.9 35.4 37.5 41.4 45.9 LONG(DEG W) 64.7 64.3 63.8 62.4 60.9 55.2 46.6 36.8 27.6 19.5 12.1 6.3 2.7 STM SPEED (KT) 8 8 11 14 19 29 36 38 35 32 30 27 25 HEAT CONTENT 6 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 5/ 6 CX,CY: 1/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 760 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 31.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. 2. 5. 9. 12. 14. 15. 14. 14. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 2. 4. 6. 7. 9. 7. 1. -6. -11. -15. -16. -19. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 4. 6. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 8. 10. 13. 17. 21. 23. 25. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -6. -8. -12. -15. -18. -20. -22. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. 0. 0. 0. 5. 5. 4. 5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -8. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -2. -3. -2. -2. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 4. 5. 6. 11. 11. 7. 9. 7. 3. -1. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL992013 INVEST 10/17/13 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 20.3 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 63.2 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 68.3 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 1.2 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -11.4 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 999.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL992013 INVEST 10/17/13 06 UTC ## ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL992013 INVEST 10/17/2013 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)