* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL992013 09/06/13 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 33 35 37 40 45 49 53 56 59 62 66 69 V (KT) LAND 30 28 28 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 V (KT) LGE mod 30 28 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 17 12 14 18 19 20 20 18 16 11 10 7 5 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 0 0 2 0 0 0 -1 -2 0 -4 -1 -4 SHEAR DIR 332 332 301 312 328 309 329 317 319 312 296 289 296 SST (C) 29.9 29.8 29.8 29.8 29.8 29.7 29.7 29.7 29.7 29.7 29.8 29.9 30.0 POT. INT. (KT) 166 165 165 165 164 162 162 161 161 161 163 165 166 ADJ. POT. INT. 148 149 148 148 146 143 142 141 141 140 140 140 139 200 MB T (C) -53.3 -52.9 -52.6 -53.0 -53.2 -52.6 -53.0 -52.3 -52.8 -52.2 -52.6 -51.9 -52.4 TH_E DEV (C) 9 11 13 11 9 13 10 13 10 13 9 12 9 700-500 MB RH 77 79 78 77 77 75 73 69 65 62 57 53 51 GFS VTEX (KT) 6 5 4 3 3 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 3 11 14 23 28 33 44 49 34 26 18 30 26 200 MB DIV 3 34 57 31 11 28 12 31 -8 20 1 3 3 700-850 TADV -2 1 0 -3 -1 0 2 0 2 0 1 0 1 LAND (KM) 58 -25 -112 -189 -267 -390 -289 -202 -156 -171 -193 -215 -195 LAT (DEG N) 22.5 22.5 22.5 22.6 22.6 22.7 22.7 23.0 23.5 24.3 25.0 25.7 26.0 LONG(DEG W) 97.3 98.2 99.0 99.8 100.5 101.7 102.8 103.8 104.6 105.2 105.6 106.0 106.5 STM SPEED (KT) 6 8 7 7 6 6 5 5 4 5 4 3 2 HEAT CONTENT 38 60 0 0 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 4 CX,CY: -3/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 602 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 96.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 11. 17. 21. 25. 27. 29. 30. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 4. 2. 1. 0. 0. 1. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 5. 8. 10. 15. 19. 23. 26. 29. 32. 36. 39. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL992013 INVEST 09/06/13 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 15.9 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.7 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 77.8 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 117.8 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.5 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 24.5 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 27.2 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 93.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.2 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 32% is 2.7 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 15% is 2.0 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 7% is 1.5 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 5% is 1.7 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL992013 INVEST 09/06/13 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL992013 INVEST 09/06/2013 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)