* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL992013 09/05/13 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 34 37 41 43 46 49 50 52 52 55 57 60 V (KT) LAND 30 34 37 41 36 30 28 27 27 27 27 27 27 V (KT) LGE mod 30 34 38 42 38 30 28 27 27 27 27 27 27 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 14 16 18 19 14 20 22 26 24 26 19 16 9 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -2 -1 -1 0 3 0 3 1 -1 0 -4 -1 SHEAR DIR 315 292 310 333 341 315 331 320 323 320 329 331 317 SST (C) 30.1 30.1 30.0 29.9 29.8 29.8 29.7 29.7 29.8 29.8 29.9 30.0 30.1 POT. INT. (KT) 170 170 168 167 165 165 162 162 164 164 166 168 170 ADJ. POT. INT. 152 153 151 150 148 147 143 142 143 143 144 145 144 200 MB T (C) -53.4 -52.8 -52.9 -53.0 -52.8 -52.8 -52.8 -52.7 -52.6 -52.7 -52.5 -52.4 -52.4 TH_E DEV (C) 10 12 10 9 11 11 12 11 12 12 11 11 11 700-500 MB RH 76 77 76 76 77 76 75 71 68 62 56 52 49 GFS VTEX (KT) 8 6 6 6 5 3 3 2 3 4 5 5 7 850 MB ENV VOR 10 1 1 1 -1 11 22 45 38 41 6 30 12 200 MB DIV 29 49 49 -1 32 9 14 18 4 14 6 19 6 700-850 TADV 2 2 -5 -2 0 -2 0 -7 0 2 4 5 1 LAND (KM) 243 186 133 51 -30 -194 -336 -394 -327 -304 -309 -330 -358 LAT (DEG N) 22.4 22.6 22.8 23.0 23.1 23.4 23.9 24.2 24.7 25.4 26.5 27.7 28.9 LONG(DEG W) 95.0 95.8 96.5 97.3 98.1 99.7 101.1 102.3 103.5 104.5 105.5 106.2 106.9 STM SPEED (KT) 6 7 7 8 7 7 6 6 6 6 7 7 7 HEAT CONTENT 48 53 47 33 57 0 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 4 CX,CY: -3/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 583 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 70.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 11. 17. 21. 25. 28. 30. 31. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 4. 0. -3. -6. -8. -8. -8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -2. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -5. -5. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 7. 11. 13. 16. 19. 21. 22. 22. 25. 27. 30. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL992013 INVEST 09/05/13 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 10.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 2.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 16.3 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.7 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 76.4 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 120.8 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.5 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 47.6 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 31.6 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 60.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 29% is 2.4 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 13% is 1.7 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 7% is 1.5 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 5% is 1.7 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL992013 INVEST 09/05/13 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL992013 INVEST 09/05/2013 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)