* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL992013 09/05/13 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 21 21 23 25 29 36 41 46 51 56 62 66 V (KT) LAND 20 21 21 23 22 25 26 27 27 27 27 27 33 V (KT) LGE mod 20 20 21 22 21 25 26 27 27 27 27 27 35 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 16 9 7 10 12 9 16 15 16 14 11 10 6 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -2 0 -1 -2 0 -3 0 -1 -2 -3 -3 -4 SHEAR DIR 311 324 289 307 349 355 353 348 347 340 347 16 38 SST (C) 29.9 29.9 29.8 29.8 29.7 29.8 29.8 29.9 29.9 30.0 29.9 29.8 29.8 POT. INT. (KT) 166 167 165 165 162 164 164 166 166 167 165 163 162 ADJ. POT. INT. 148 153 150 149 147 149 149 150 150 150 148 144 142 200 MB T (C) -53.7 -53.4 -52.7 -52.9 -53.0 -52.4 -52.9 -52.6 -53.1 -52.3 -52.8 -52.0 -52.6 TH_E DEV (C) 7 10 11 10 8 11 8 11 8 12 9 13 9 700-500 MB RH 78 79 80 80 80 82 82 79 78 74 70 67 62 GFS VTEX (KT) 7 8 6 6 6 4 3 1 2 2 LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 28 15 14 22 26 15 36 42 62 69 55 48 32 200 MB DIV -1 22 41 39 30 49 15 33 5 42 12 41 -12 700-850 TADV -1 2 4 -1 0 0 -1 -2 -1 -2 0 0 0 LAND (KM) 269 196 115 45 -20 -152 -295 -280 -193 -142 -72 -5 10 LAT (DEG N) 21.3 21.4 21.4 21.4 21.3 21.1 20.8 20.5 20.2 20.2 20.6 21.3 21.7 LONG(DEG W) 94.4 95.3 96.1 96.9 97.6 99.0 100.4 101.6 102.8 103.8 104.6 105.2 105.7 STM SPEED (KT) 5 8 7 7 7 7 6 6 5 4 4 4 3 HEAT CONTENT 31 36 35 26 65 0 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):265/ 3 CX,CY: -2/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 15 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 498 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 21.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -1. 0. 4. 11. 19. 25. 30. 34. 37. 39. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 5. 6. 8. 8. 7. 6. 4. 4. 4. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. -4. -5. -7. -7. -8. -8. -7. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 1. 3. 5. 9. 16. 21. 26. 31. 36. 42. 46. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL992013 INVEST 09/05/13 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.8 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.0 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 77.8 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 129.2 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.6 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 38.6 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 26.2 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 18.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 24% is 2.0 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 13% is 1.7 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL992013 INVEST 09/05/13 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL992013 INVEST 09/05/2013 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED