* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL992013 09/05/13 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 20 22 23 25 30 35 41 46 52 57 64 67 V (KT) LAND 20 20 22 23 22 25 26 27 27 30 36 42 46 V (KT) LGE mod 20 20 21 22 21 25 26 27 27 27 36 43 52 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 18 15 9 7 9 10 13 15 14 9 7 5 2 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -3 -2 0 0 0 -1 -1 -1 -1 -1 -3 -3 SHEAR DIR 292 308 326 286 307 6 356 354 353 322 357 2 148 SST (C) 29.9 29.9 29.9 29.8 29.8 29.8 29.8 29.8 29.8 29.8 29.7 29.4 29.2 POT. INT. (KT) 166 167 167 165 165 165 165 165 164 164 163 157 154 ADJ. POT. INT. 150 152 152 150 150 151 150 149 149 148 146 140 136 200 MB T (C) -53.4 -53.6 -53.4 -52.7 -52.9 -52.7 -52.6 -52.7 -52.7 -52.7 -52.4 -52.4 -52.1 TH_E DEV (C) 8 7 10 12 10 9 9 10 10 11 10 10 8 700-500 MB RH 78 78 79 80 80 83 83 80 76 73 69 65 61 GFS VTEX (KT) 6 7 8 6 6 5 4 2 2 2 LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 25 24 14 13 24 26 45 54 65 53 56 41 45 200 MB DIV 25 11 33 48 46 44 39 17 23 13 25 35 28 700-850 TADV -3 -1 1 3 -2 1 -2 -3 -3 -1 -2 0 0 LAND (KM) 281 201 114 32 -34 -164 -339 -269 -124 0 99 150 67 LAT (DEG N) 21.5 21.5 21.5 21.5 21.5 21.4 21.2 21.2 21.2 21.5 21.9 22.7 23.7 LONG(DEG W) 94.4 95.3 96.1 96.9 97.7 99.3 101.0 102.6 104.0 105.3 106.6 107.9 108.9 STM SPEED (KT) 7 8 7 7 7 8 7 7 7 6 7 7 7 HEAT CONTENT 33 38 36 23 66 0 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 4 CX,CY: -3/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 15 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 510 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 5.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -1. 0. 4. 11. 19. 25. 30. 34. 37. 39. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 5. 6. 8. 8. 7. 6. 5. 5. 6. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -2. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 0. 0. -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -6. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -8. -8. -7. -6. -6. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 2. 3. 5. 10. 15. 21. 26. 32. 37. 44. 47. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL992013 INVEST 09/05/13 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.8 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.8 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 77.4 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 130.7 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.6 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 39.2 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 32.6 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 3.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL992013 INVEST 09/05/13 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL992013 INVEST 09/05/2013 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)