* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL992013 07/25/13 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 22 24 27 30 34 35 36 36 33 28 21 16 V (KT) LAND 20 22 24 27 30 34 34 31 34 31 25 19 DIS V (KT) LGE mod 20 21 21 22 23 25 28 27 32 34 38 41 43 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 8 11 18 17 16 14 9 18 33 45 45 42 43 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -4 -4 -4 -2 2 1 2 -1 0 4 9 9 SHEAR DIR 48 40 37 39 22 16 161 253 288 307 307 281 246 SST (C) 27.5 27.5 27.3 27.0 25.9 18.9 17.4 12.5 9.0 9.9 15.9 18.7 19.2 POT. INT. (KT) 132 131 129 126 115 79 75 68 66 67 74 80 82 ADJ. POT. INT. 114 112 110 108 100 73 70 66 65 66 70 74 75 200 MB T (C) -55.6 -55.3 -55.0 -55.1 -55.2 -54.6 -54.4 -54.7 -54.8 -54.4 -53.4 -52.1 -50.8 TH_E DEV (C) 9 10 9 8 7 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 58 57 60 62 63 62 59 55 52 50 47 49 53 GFS VTEX (KT) 4 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -55 -53 -38 -7 13 23 0 -29 -6 47 108 131 130 200 MB DIV 28 36 19 28 64 71 60 0 -9 -23 -2 12 22 700-850 TADV 0 -9 -6 14 13 5 10 37 17 -11 -15 -17 -34 LAND (KM) 1152 1004 856 684 513 156 19 -44 136 448 857 1384 1250 LAT (DEG N) 34.2 35.4 36.5 38.0 39.5 43.3 46.8 49.4 50.3 49.8 48.4 47.6 48.1 LONG(DEG W) 59.6 60.5 61.3 61.9 62.4 62.6 61.0 57.3 52.4 47.1 41.3 34.3 26.7 STM SPEED (KT) 14 13 14 16 17 19 17 17 16 19 22 24 25 HEAT CONTENT 15 22 21 16 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):325/ 14 CX,CY: -7/ 11 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 500 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 25.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 40.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 6. 10. 13. 16. 16. 16. 18. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 2. 4. 7. 9. 12. 13. 11. 8. 4. -1. -6. -13. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -3. -2. -2. -1. 0. 2. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 9. 10. 9. 8. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -5. -8. -11. -15. -19. -22. -25. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 7. 10. 14. 15. 16. 16. 13. 8. 1. -4. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL992013 INVEST 07/25/13 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.0 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 25.2 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 66.2 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 88.8 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.4 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 15.4 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 35.0 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 35.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 16% is 1.3 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 9% is 1.2 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 5% is 1.1 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 4% is 1.4 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL992013 INVEST 07/25/13 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL992013 INVEST 07/25/2013 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)