* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL992013 07/25/13 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 21 23 26 29 36 37 40 41 39 35 29 24 V (KT) LAND 20 21 23 26 29 36 37 37 35 33 28 23 18 V (KT) LGE mod 20 21 21 22 24 26 28 30 32 35 39 42 44 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 6 5 10 18 15 18 3 19 24 40 38 39 26 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -1 -5 -5 -4 0 9 2 4 6 9 5 2 SHEAR DIR 87 43 41 30 34 6 16 213 247 274 271 240 223 SST (C) 27.5 27.5 27.6 27.3 27.1 23.5 18.3 15.3 10.1 10.4 12.3 11.5 11.5 POT. INT. (KT) 131 131 133 129 127 97 77 72 68 69 69 67 65 ADJ. POT. INT. 114 113 114 110 109 86 71 68 66 67 67 64 63 200 MB T (C) -55.6 -56.1 -55.7 -55.3 -55.3 -55.3 -54.6 -53.9 -52.9 -52.1 -49.9 -48.1 -45.6 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 10 10 9 6 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 55 54 56 56 61 60 59 56 54 52 50 53 58 GFS VTEX (KT) 4 3 3 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -56 -60 -47 -22 2 30 15 33 34 103 182 219 222 200 MB DIV 5 34 21 10 46 75 64 10 -12 -5 12 24 24 700-850 TADV 4 0 -10 -12 19 -19 56 7 -14 -22 -10 -1 -14 LAND (KM) 1298 1160 1024 867 712 359 27 14 67 490 981 1387 1399 LAT (DEG N) 33.1 34.1 35.1 36.4 37.6 40.9 44.6 47.9 50.0 51.1 51.5 52.7 54.0 LONG(DEG W) 58.7 59.7 60.6 61.4 62.2 62.9 62.4 59.5 53.9 47.2 40.0 34.4 31.4 STM SPEED (KT) 13 13 13 14 15 17 19 20 21 22 20 15 11 HEAT CONTENT 9 16 23 21 22 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):315/ 13 CX,CY: -8/ 9 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 538 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 27.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 35.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 8. 13. 16. 19. 20. 19. 20. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 4. 6. 9. 12. 13. 12. 11. 7. 3. -1. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -4. -2. -1. 1. 3. 5. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 6. 6. 7. 6. 3. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -3. -6. -10. -14. -17. -20. -23. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 1. 3. 5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 6. 9. 16. 17. 20. 21. 19. 15. 9. 4. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL992013 INVEST 07/25/13 06 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 2.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.9 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 27.6 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 23.2 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 92.0 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.7 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 63.2 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 18.2 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 32.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 17% is 1.3 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 11% is 1.3 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL992013 INVEST 07/25/2013 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)