* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL992013 07/25/13 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 22 24 27 31 37 40 41 41 39 36 31 26 V (KT) LAND 20 22 24 27 31 37 40 41 39 38 34 30 24 V (KT) LGE mod 20 21 22 23 24 27 29 30 28 31 33 36 38 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 4 5 10 13 18 14 13 3 21 27 32 30 37 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 0 -5 -6 -4 -4 0 8 4 0 4 4 7 SHEAR DIR 101 92 54 35 35 24 28 292 299 303 311 287 260 SST (C) 27.5 27.5 27.5 27.5 27.3 25.8 19.3 15.9 12.1 10.0 17.4 20.7 20.3 POT. INT. (KT) 131 131 131 131 129 114 80 72 68 67 77 86 85 ADJ. POT. INT. 114 113 113 112 110 99 73 68 66 66 72 79 79 200 MB T (C) -55.4 -55.6 -55.9 -55.6 -55.2 -55.2 -54.8 -55.1 -55.3 -55.4 -54.9 -53.8 -52.4 TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 10 11 10 8 3 0 0 0 0 0 1 700-500 MB RH 54 54 54 53 54 55 58 61 55 52 47 48 48 GFS VTEX (KT) 4 4 3 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -57 -55 -56 -52 -41 1 12 -24 -45 -32 -6 32 37 200 MB DIV 9 17 27 23 10 45 55 18 3 -17 -17 0 2 700-850 TADV -5 3 0 -16 -9 5 6 19 56 20 43 27 24 LAND (KM) 1445 1308 1172 1025 878 569 238 122 7 411 884 1430 1348 LAT (DEG N) 32.0 33.0 34.0 35.3 36.5 39.7 43.3 46.1 47.7 47.8 47.0 46.1 46.0 LONG(DEG W) 57.8 58.7 59.6 60.2 60.7 60.9 59.8 57.0 52.7 47.3 41.1 34.1 26.3 STM SPEED (KT) 12 13 13 13 14 17 18 16 17 20 23 26 27 HEAT CONTENT 7 9 16 19 21 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):310/ 10 CX,CY: -7/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 533 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 22.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 38.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 5. 9. 13. 17. 20. 21. 20. 22. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 6. 8. 11. 13. 12. 11. 9. 7. 3. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -5. -5. -4. -3. -2. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -5. -8. -12. -15. -18. -21. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -5. -5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 7. 11. 17. 20. 21. 21. 19. 16. 11. 6. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL992013 INVEST 07/25/13 00 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 2.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.0 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 22.1 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 17.2 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 92.6 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.7 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 62.4 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 14.4 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 28.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 18% is 1.4 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 12% is 1.4 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL992013 INVEST 07/25/2013 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)