* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL992013 07/24/13 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 22 25 27 31 39 46 51 56 56 53 45 38 V (KT) LAND 20 22 25 27 31 39 46 51 56 40 38 31 23 V (KT) LGE mod 20 21 22 24 25 29 33 37 39 33 38 39 39 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 3 5 6 7 19 18 16 7 22 31 45 51 51 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -4 -2 -5 -6 -4 -5 -1 -3 0 -6 -7 -4 SHEAR DIR 180 100 106 48 43 25 31 168 254 259 273 300 314 SST (C) 27.7 27.6 27.6 27.6 27.7 27.6 27.3 21.8 16.4 17.4 16.1 15.2 17.1 POT. INT. (KT) 133 132 132 132 134 133 130 87 72 74 72 69 72 ADJ. POT. INT. 114 114 114 114 116 115 111 77 67 69 67 65 67 200 MB T (C) -55.4 -55.4 -55.6 -55.9 -55.8 -55.5 -55.3 -54.7 -54.9 -54.4 -54.4 -54.4 -54.6 TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 10 10 10 9 8 5 4 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 55 54 57 57 57 64 56 46 51 48 45 46 49 GFS VTEX (KT) 4 4 3 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -53 -57 -56 -54 -53 25 35 16 39 6 -12 -29 -38 200 MB DIV 3 6 9 29 30 40 68 49 69 40 -3 -34 -35 700-850 TADV -6 -4 1 0 -13 6 -31 -3 -4 -16 -7 -12 -13 LAND (KM) 1612 1509 1409 1296 1188 922 557 266 79 -34 61 50 211 LAT (DEG N) 30.8 31.4 31.9 32.6 33.3 35.2 37.8 40.7 43.4 45.7 47.0 46.4 44.8 LONG(DEG W) 56.7 57.9 59.0 60.2 61.4 63.8 66.3 67.5 66.9 64.3 59.7 55.7 53.5 STM SPEED (KT) 10 11 11 12 13 15 16 14 14 15 15 12 11 HEAT CONTENT 8 10 14 18 16 18 27 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 8 CX,CY: -6/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 527 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 24.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 44.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 5. 10. 16. 20. 23. 24. 23. 24. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 5. 8. 11. 12. 11. 10. 7. 3. -3. -10. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -3. -2. 0. 2. 3. 3. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -5. -8. -11. -14. -17. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 7. 11. 19. 26. 31. 36. 37. 33. 25. 18. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL992013 INVEST 07/24/13 18 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 2.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.1 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 24.7 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 15.4 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 94.4 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.7 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 62.4 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 13.2 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 40.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 19% is 1.5 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 12% is 1.4 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 8% is 1.6 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 5% is 1.6 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL992013 INVEST 07/24/2013 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)