* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL992013 07/24/13 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 21 24 26 28 34 39 42 41 40 39 35 32 V (KT) LAND 20 21 24 26 28 34 39 42 41 35 37 34 31 V (KT) LGE mod 20 21 22 23 25 28 31 33 33 32 33 36 40 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 3 4 9 6 8 16 16 17 7 13 26 32 31 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -2 -3 -1 -3 -1 -1 0 3 6 -1 1 1 SHEAR DIR 169 130 121 113 64 37 23 21 43 290 276 284 282 SST (C) 27.8 27.7 27.6 27.5 27.5 27.5 26.6 20.7 16.2 12.2 9.6 16.6 20.4 POT. INT. (KT) 133 133 132 131 131 132 122 84 73 68 67 75 85 ADJ. POT. INT. 113 114 114 113 113 113 105 76 69 66 66 70 77 200 MB T (C) -55.0 -55.3 -55.2 -55.3 -55.8 -55.4 -55.4 -54.8 -54.9 -54.6 -54.8 -54.1 -54.0 TH_E DEV (C) 8 9 9 10 9 10 9 5 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 57 54 54 54 55 57 57 57 56 53 46 39 36 GFS VTEX (KT) 5 4 4 3 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -36 -47 -52 -59 -62 -42 10 15 -15 -40 -1 17 25 200 MB DIV 7 3 -1 15 28 1 53 46 45 -9 -21 -34 -23 700-850 TADV -3 -4 -2 4 -1 -9 6 1 16 47 5 -5 -17 LAND (KM) 1689 1598 1498 1369 1241 949 638 312 173 -10 392 846 1355 LAT (DEG N) 30.4 31.0 31.6 32.5 33.4 35.8 38.8 42.5 45.8 47.9 48.3 47.5 46.1 LONG(DEG W) 55.6 56.6 57.5 58.5 59.4 60.7 61.1 60.1 57.5 53.2 47.6 41.5 35.1 STM SPEED (KT) 8 10 11 12 12 14 17 19 18 18 19 22 23 HEAT CONTENT 12 7 7 8 13 24 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 5 CX,CY: -4/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 594 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 28.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 5. 10. 16. 20. 22. 23. 22. 23. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 5. 7. 11. 12. 11. 11. 11. 9. 6. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -6. -5. -4. -3. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 12. 13. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -5. -9. -12. -15. -18. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -5. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 4. 6. 8. 14. 19. 22. 21. 20. 19. 15. 12. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL992013 INVEST 07/24/13 12 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 2.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.0 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.2 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 10.4 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 93.4 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.7 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 64.4 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 9.4 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 21.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 20% is 1.6 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 13% is 1.6 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL992013 INVEST 07/24/2013 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)