* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL992012 10/22/12 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 31 35 40 50 58 68 73 76 70 64 55 V (KT) LAND 25 28 31 35 40 50 58 63 53 56 50 44 35 V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 28 30 33 39 44 45 39 40 38 34 29 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 4 4 3 8 9 11 22 27 27 45 53 59 48 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -5 -5 -5 -5 0 2 3 5 7 -1 0 -3 SHEAR DIR 279 320 274 254 268 255 247 220 234 206 202 205 224 SST (C) 29.5 29.5 29.5 29.5 29.5 29.5 29.5 29.5 29.4 29.1 28.5 28.0 27.7 POT. INT. (KT) 157 157 156 156 158 159 160 160 159 154 144 135 130 ADJ. POT. INT. 147 146 144 144 148 152 153 151 149 143 129 116 110 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -52.5 -52.5 -52.7 -52.8 -52.2 -52.7 -51.8 -52.1 -51.2 -51.3 -51.3 -52.1 TH_E DEV (C) 7 8 8 7 6 7 6 7 7 6 6 6 6 700-500 MB RH 79 79 80 81 81 79 77 76 71 63 59 52 52 GFS VTEX (KT) 10 11 11 12 13 15 18 23 24 27 26 28 27 850 MB ENV VOR 99 104 115 126 127 131 144 177 215 228 216 218 190 200 MB DIV 58 81 94 114 104 123 122 153 181 141 78 36 8 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 0 0 3 15 15 23 5 3 -5 -5 LAND (KM) 435 456 463 441 419 289 100 26 -38 180 445 579 574 LAT (DEG N) 13.7 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 77.9 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 4 3 2 2 4 7 9 9 11 12 10 6 4 HEAT CONTENT 93 88 82 84 85 88 76 81 93 81 58 49 25 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):225/ 5 CX,CY: -3/ -3 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 588 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 25.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 64.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 5. 11. 18. 23. 28. 31. 34. 35. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 5. 7. 7. 5. 2. -3. -10. -17. -22. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -9. -10. -11. -11. -12. -11. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -6. -8. -10. -11. -12. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. 4. 7. 11. 12. 15. 13. 14. 12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 7. 10. 12. 14. 16. 16. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 6. 8. 10. 11. 10. 8. 6. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 6. 5. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 10. 15. 25. 33. 43. 48. 51. 45. 39. 30. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL992012 INVEST 10/22/12 12 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 2.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.6 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 25.5 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 90.2 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 121.1 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 80.0 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.5 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 86.4 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 60.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.2 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 48% is 3.7 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 23% is 2.8 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 13% is 2.6 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 8% is 2.4 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL992012 INVEST 10/22/2012 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)