* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL992012 10/22/12 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 30 34 38 46 53 61 65 71 68 63 55 V (KT) LAND 25 27 30 34 38 46 53 52 53 50 47 43 35 V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 27 29 30 35 39 37 40 36 35 32 28 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 7 8 3 5 8 12 25 22 29 32 50 55 52 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -3 -3 -3 -4 1 0 4 0 8 0 4 -5 SHEAR DIR 232 260 305 258 245 258 238 221 204 212 204 194 204 SST (C) 29.2 29.2 29.3 29.3 29.3 29.3 29.4 29.4 29.4 29.1 28.9 28.6 28.2 POT. INT. (KT) 153 152 153 152 153 155 158 158 158 153 150 146 140 ADJ. POT. INT. 143 142 141 139 141 145 150 150 148 141 136 131 123 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -53.1 -52.5 -52.3 -52.6 -52.5 -52.5 -52.2 -52.0 -51.3 -51.2 -50.9 -51.4 TH_E DEV (C) 8 7 8 8 7 8 6 7 7 7 6 7 5 700-500 MB RH 75 76 77 79 80 79 77 75 71 63 58 49 53 GFS VTEX (KT) 9 9 10 11 12 14 17 20 21 26 27 28 29 850 MB ENV VOR 92 98 104 116 125 121 143 160 198 218 215 221 185 200 MB DIV 70 68 77 87 92 112 99 152 137 178 85 41 11 700-850 TADV -1 0 0 -1 0 3 13 12 5 17 8 1 -12 LAND (KM) 385 403 422 414 406 325 169 -30 -2 85 285 502 549 LAT (DEG N) 14.3 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 77.9 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 5 4 2 1 2 5 8 10 10 10 10 11 10 HEAT CONTENT 103 91 81 78 75 71 68 104 116 87 78 51 30 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):255/ 4 CX,CY: -3/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 612 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 51.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 11. 18. 23. 28. 31. 34. 35. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 7. 4. 1. -3. -10. -16. -22. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -8. -10. -12. -13. -14. -14. -13. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -9. -10. -11. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 7. 9. 10. 15. 15. 15. 15. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 9. 11. 13. 15. 15. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 8. 9. 9. 7. 6. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 6. 6. 6. 6. 4. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 9. 13. 21. 28. 36. 40. 46. 43. 38. 30. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL992012 INVEST 10/22/12 06 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 2.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.5 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.3 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 78.8 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 116.3 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 78.0 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.4 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 85.6 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 42.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 44% is 3.4 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 23% is 2.7 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 16% is 3.3 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 9% is 2.8 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL992012 INVEST 10/22/2012 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)