* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL992012 10/21/12 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 30 33 37 45 54 60 65 67 70 68 66 V (KT) LAND 25 27 30 33 37 45 54 60 65 64 48 50 48 V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 27 29 31 35 40 44 46 44 35 36 33 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 11 3 4 5 4 9 11 25 20 33 33 48 45 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -1 -2 0 1 -3 0 3 1 4 5 1 1 SHEAR DIR 323 313 233 245 242 252 244 241 240 235 208 206 187 SST (C) 29.2 29.2 29.2 29.3 29.3 29.3 29.3 29.4 29.5 29.5 29.3 28.9 28.7 POT. INT. (KT) 154 154 153 154 153 153 154 157 160 160 157 151 148 ADJ. POT. INT. 149 147 145 145 142 141 145 149 152 151 147 139 134 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -52.6 -52.9 -53.1 -52.6 -52.7 -52.5 -52.6 -51.8 -51.9 -51.4 -51.2 -51.2 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 7 8 7 8 7 8 8 8 7 7 700-500 MB RH 78 77 76 76 77 79 78 73 69 68 63 58 51 GFS VTEX (KT) 7 7 8 9 10 13 15 17 20 24 27 28 31 850 MB ENV VOR 70 76 83 92 99 117 121 148 164 196 233 229 229 200 MB DIV 52 78 68 68 83 75 100 100 148 124 137 64 45 700-850 TADV -3 0 0 -1 -1 0 1 8 10 16 8 17 6 LAND (KM) 345 374 413 443 456 432 388 256 76 63 -32 217 420 LAT (DEG N) 14.6 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 76.9 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 8 7 5 4 2 2 5 7 9 10 11 12 12 HEAT CONTENT 135 114 92 81 72 69 70 52 56 102 43 78 52 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 9 CX,CY: -8/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 702 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 43.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 5. 11. 18. 23. 28. 31. 34. 36. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 5. 8. 9. 7. 6. 1. -3. -9. -14. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -3. -5. -7. -10. -13. -14. -16. -17. -16. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -8. -9. -10. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 6. 8. 11. 14. 16. 16. 18. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 7. 9. 11. 13. 14. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 7. 8. 6. 5. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 8. 12. 20. 29. 35. 40. 42. 45. 43. 41. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL992012 INVEST 10/21/12 18 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 2.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.5 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.7 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 69.8 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 120.6 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 77.4 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.4 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 98.8 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 34.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 43% is 3.4 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 22% is 2.6 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 18% is 3.5 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL992012 INVEST 10/21/2012 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)