* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL992012 10/21/12 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 28 32 34 40 48 55 57 59 58 57 55 V (KT) LAND 25 26 28 32 34 40 48 55 57 59 58 55 49 V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 27 28 29 33 36 39 43 45 44 42 38 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 2 7 11 6 4 10 6 11 24 22 31 37 47 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -1 0 2 3 0 -1 -4 0 0 1 1 4 SHEAR DIR 291 246 271 306 243 240 248 255 226 231 213 219 206 SST (C) 29.1 29.2 29.2 29.2 29.2 29.3 29.3 29.3 29.3 29.3 29.4 29.4 29.2 POT. INT. (KT) 153 155 155 154 154 155 153 153 155 155 158 161 158 ADJ. POT. INT. 147 153 150 148 146 147 143 143 147 145 151 160 156 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -53.3 -53.5 -53.0 -52.7 -53.0 -52.4 -52.9 -52.4 -53.0 -52.4 -52.9 -52.4 TH_E DEV (C) 8 7 7 8 8 8 9 7 8 6 8 7 7 700-500 MB RH 71 72 73 72 71 72 72 72 75 75 72 73 72 GFS VTEX (KT) 6 6 6 7 8 9 10 12 12 14 14 14 LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 38 46 56 68 75 91 100 111 118 133 153 186 192 200 MB DIV 49 37 30 31 56 45 80 79 95 86 105 108 100 700-850 TADV 0 0 -4 -4 0 -1 0 0 0 0 0 11 0 LAND (KM) 326 375 345 343 345 409 396 404 400 267 147 69 153 LAT (DEG N) 14.7 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 73.7 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 8 11 9 8 6 6 3 3 6 6 9 16 19 HEAT CONTENT 90 114 132 120 94 70 52 53 68 71 74 100 87 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 6 CX,CY: -5/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 550 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 30.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 5. 11. 18. 23. 28. 31. 35. 37. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 9. 9. 7. 4. 1. -3. -8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -2. -5. -7. -10. -13. -15. -17. -19. -20. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -9. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 6. 7. 9. 10. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 4. 4. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 6. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 7. 9. 15. 23. 30. 32. 34. 33. 32. 30. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL992012 INVEST 10/21/12 00 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 2.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.9 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.6 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 40.6 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 123.7 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.1 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 74.8 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.4 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 110.0 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 20.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 38% is 3.0 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 20% is 2.4 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL992012 INVEST 10/21/2012 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)