* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL992012 10/20/12 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 29 33 38 43 49 57 62 65 64 64 61 61 V (KT) LAND 25 29 33 38 43 49 57 62 65 64 64 61 61 V (KT) LGE mod 25 28 31 34 37 42 47 51 54 55 53 50 45 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 4 2 8 8 3 12 15 17 19 27 26 28 26 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 0 0 0 1 0 0 -1 1 5 6 10 9 SHEAR DIR 9 236 230 248 230 242 253 247 241 260 255 238 222 SST (C) 29.1 29.1 29.2 29.2 29.2 29.3 29.3 29.4 29.5 29.5 29.5 29.5 29.4 POT. INT. (KT) 152 153 154 154 154 155 155 156 158 157 155 161 162 ADJ. POT. INT. 146 147 148 147 146 148 147 147 148 145 142 161 168 200 MB T (C) -53.4 -53.1 -53.3 -53.3 -53.0 -52.8 -52.6 -52.6 -52.4 -52.7 -52.5 -52.6 -52.3 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 7 9 8 10 9 9 8 8 8 8 700-500 MB RH 72 71 70 69 68 68 69 69 70 72 73 71 72 GFS VTEX (KT) 6 6 6 7 7 7 10 11 13 13 15 16 19 850 MB ENV VOR 27 32 42 48 56 70 89 107 103 136 124 128 151 200 MB DIV 60 36 43 38 38 48 42 70 92 69 76 38 61 700-850 TADV -2 0 0 -2 -2 0 -2 -1 -1 0 0 3 11 LAND (KM) 272 341 357 321 300 292 330 322 215 139 96 193 158 LAT (DEG N) 14.6 14.8 14.9 15.0 15.1 15.1 15.1 15.0 14.8 14.5 14.4 14.4 16.4 LONG(DEG W) 73.0 73.9 74.7 75.5 76.2 77.6 79.0 80.2 81.2 81.9 82.3 81.4 78.0 STM SPEED (KT) 8 8 8 7 7 7 6 5 4 3 1 12 19 HEAT CONTENT 73 94 116 132 133 85 56 55 69 79 84 70 73 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 562 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 82.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 5. 11. 18. 23. 28. 31. 35. 37. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 6. 8. 8. 8. 6. 3. -1. -4. -6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -8. -10. -13. -15. -17. -20. -22. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 2. 3. 5. 5. 6. 6. 8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. 7. 7. 6. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 8. 13. 18. 24. 32. 37. 40. 39. 39. 36. 36. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL992012 INVEST 10/20/12 18 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 2.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.3 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.4 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 43.0 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 121.8 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 74.0 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.4 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 109.6 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 68.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.3 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 51% is 4.0 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 34% is 4.0 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 29% is 5.8 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 17% is 5.0 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL992012 INVEST 10/20/2012 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)