* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL992012 10/20/12 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 32 36 40 48 54 60 62 61 59 58 56 V (KT) LAND 25 28 32 36 40 48 54 60 62 61 59 58 56 V (KT) LGE mod 25 28 30 33 36 42 46 51 53 54 53 50 47 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 6 5 2 7 6 7 14 15 15 21 25 19 24 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -1 1 2 2 4 -1 0 -1 0 1 5 8 SHEAR DIR 331 335 229 242 255 206 240 236 243 240 234 201 196 SST (C) 29.1 29.1 29.2 29.2 29.2 29.2 29.3 29.3 29.4 29.4 29.4 29.3 29.3 POT. INT. (KT) 153 153 154 154 154 153 155 154 155 154 154 155 156 ADJ. POT. INT. 149 147 148 148 147 146 147 145 145 143 144 149 151 200 MB T (C) -53.7 -53.2 -53.0 -53.1 -53.2 -52.6 -52.9 -52.6 -53.0 -52.6 -53.0 -52.5 -53.0 TH_E DEV (C) 7 8 8 8 8 9 8 10 8 8 7 8 6 700-500 MB RH 76 73 71 71 69 67 68 68 69 75 76 76 76 GFS VTEX (KT) 4 4 4 4 5 6 6 8 9 9 LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 26 31 35 45 54 71 87 92 99 93 106 96 99 200 MB DIV 54 52 42 35 25 45 35 53 66 69 68 68 50 700-850 TADV -3 -2 -1 -1 -2 -1 -1 0 0 -1 0 0 0 LAND (KM) 261 322 363 352 344 367 433 404 342 314 303 356 374 LAT (DEG N) 14.6 14.7 14.8 14.8 14.7 14.4 14.0 13.6 13.2 12.9 12.9 13.4 14.6 LONG(DEG W) 72.8 73.7 74.5 75.3 76.1 77.4 78.6 79.5 80.2 80.6 80.7 80.0 78.8 STM SPEED (KT) 10 8 8 8 7 6 6 4 3 2 2 6 8 HEAT CONTENT 69 89 110 126 131 98 68 53 51 52 53 51 62 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 712 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 69.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 5. 11. 18. 23. 28. 31. 34. 36. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 9. 8. 6. 3. 2. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -7. -10. -13. -15. -18. -21. -21. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -8. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 6. 6. 5. 5. 4. 4. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 7. 11. 15. 23. 29. 35. 37. 36. 34. 33. 31. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL992012 INVEST 10/20/12 12 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 2.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.2 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.8 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 41.6 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 122.9 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.1 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 75.0 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.4 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 105.0 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 58.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.2 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 45% is 3.5 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 22% is 2.7 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 16% is 3.3 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 9% is 2.7 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL992012 INVEST 10/20/2012 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)