* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL992012 09/03/12 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 34 36 37 38 36 31 27 25 22 21 17 V (KT) LAND 30 32 34 36 37 38 36 31 27 25 22 21 17 V (KT) LGE mod 30 32 34 35 37 38 38 36 33 31 30 31 31 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 13 16 21 25 21 38 48 49 31 23 25 29 39 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -3 -1 -1 -4 -7 -11 -8 -7 -4 0 0 1 SHEAR DIR 273 293 305 311 315 316 318 313 326 355 3 23 28 SST (C) 27.4 27.5 27.6 27.7 27.8 28.0 28.1 28.1 28.1 28.1 28.1 28.2 28.2 POT. INT. (KT) 127 128 129 130 131 133 134 134 135 135 136 137 137 ADJ. POT. INT. 109 111 111 111 111 113 112 111 114 115 116 118 118 200 MB T (C) -54.8 -54.9 -55.1 -54.9 -54.6 -54.2 -53.9 -53.7 -53.5 -53.5 -52.7 -52.1 -51.6 TH_E DEV (C) 8 9 9 8 9 8 8 8 8 8 8 9 9 700-500 MB RH 50 50 50 48 48 49 48 49 48 47 43 45 44 GFS VTEX (KT) 7 7 6 6 6 5 4 3 3 4 3 3 2 850 MB ENV VOR -8 1 -15 -34 -44 -69 -79 -66 -67 -63 -74 -74 -90 200 MB DIV 25 0 -38 -29 -30 -38 11 -14 -16 -34 0 -30 3 700-850 TADV 2 1 2 0 1 2 -1 0 2 0 0 0 -1 LAND (KM) 2535 2509 2464 2430 2392 2326 2287 2259 2210 2132 2031 1942 1847 LAT (DEG N) 25.5 25.8 26.0 26.2 26.3 26.6 26.8 26.8 26.5 26.2 26.0 26.1 26.4 LONG(DEG W) 42.1 42.7 43.2 43.7 44.1 44.9 45.4 45.7 46.1 46.8 47.8 48.8 50.0 STM SPEED (KT) 5 6 5 4 4 3 2 1 3 4 4 5 5 HEAT CONTENT 23 25 23 22 21 20 20 20 24 30 28 32 37 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 4 CX,CY: -3/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 680 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 25.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 29.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 8. 13. 16. 20. 21. 22. 23. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 5. 5. 0. -9. -15. -19. -21. -22. -25. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -5. -5. -6. -6. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -9. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 6. 7. 8. 6. 1. -3. -5. -8. -9. -13. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL992012 INVEST 09/03/12 18 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 2.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 19.4 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 25.0 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : -14.4 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 80.6 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 61.0 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 22.8 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 25.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 11% is 0.9 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 7% is 0.9 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL992012 INVEST 09/03/2012 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)