* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL992012 09/03/12 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 28 29 30 32 32 29 25 23 23 23 22 V (KT) LAND 25 26 28 29 30 32 32 29 25 23 23 23 22 V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 26 27 28 29 30 30 28 26 25 26 26 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 10 13 14 19 19 28 36 45 38 30 20 27 29 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -4 -1 0 2 -4 -3 -7 -5 -2 -1 1 0 SHEAR DIR 304 295 291 303 299 312 315 313 322 344 21 24 29 SST (C) 27.4 27.4 27.4 27.5 27.6 27.8 27.9 28.0 28.0 28.0 28.1 28.2 28.2 POT. INT. (KT) 126 126 126 127 128 131 132 132 131 132 134 135 136 ADJ. POT. INT. 109 108 108 109 110 112 111 109 108 109 111 112 112 200 MB T (C) -54.7 -54.6 -54.7 -55.0 -55.2 -54.4 -54.7 -53.9 -54.7 -54.1 -54.3 -53.8 -53.8 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 9 9 8 9 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 700-500 MB RH 52 53 51 50 48 48 48 48 46 45 42 39 36 GFS VTEX (KT) 7 6 7 6 6 5 3 3 2 2 LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -5 -7 2 -13 -30 -48 -73 -62 -60 -62 -72 -83 -93 200 MB DIV -1 17 4 -11 -43 -15 -13 -10 -11 -14 -34 -23 -23 700-850 TADV 1 1 2 1 0 2 0 0 1 0 0 0 -1 LAND (KM) 2520 2496 2472 2466 2431 2391 2356 2321 2314 2303 2262 2221 2170 LAT (DEG N) 25.2 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 41.8 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 4 4 4 4 4 4 3 1 1 1 2 2 2 HEAT CONTENT 23 24 25 25 24 21 21 21 21 21 19 18 18 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):230/ 6 CX,CY: -4/ -3 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 668 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 18.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 9. 14. 19. 22. 24. 25. 26. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 5. 6. 7. 4. -3. -10. -14. -16. -17. -20. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 8. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -7. -7. -7. -7. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. -6. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 4. 5. 7. 7. 4. 0. -2. -2. -2. -3. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL992012 INVEST 09/03/12 12 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 2.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 15.2 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.3 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : -6.8 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 83.7 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 61.0 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 24.2 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 16.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL992012 INVEST 09/03/2012 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)