* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL992012 09/03/12 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 28 30 32 34 35 34 28 24 22 20 17 V (KT) LAND 25 26 28 30 32 34 35 34 28 24 22 20 17 V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 26 27 28 30 32 32 30 28 26 24 23 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 12 13 16 17 20 22 33 43 47 36 35 43 47 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -2 -4 -2 0 -2 -1 -9 -8 -3 -2 -4 -5 SHEAR DIR 327 302 297 303 311 289 308 315 317 337 359 10 11 SST (C) 27.7 27.8 27.9 27.9 28.0 28.0 28.1 28.2 28.2 28.1 28.0 28.0 28.1 POT. INT. (KT) 131 132 133 133 134 134 134 135 136 135 135 135 136 ADJ. POT. INT. 113 114 114 114 114 114 112 113 114 115 116 117 118 200 MB T (C) -54.6 -54.7 -54.5 -54.8 -55.2 -54.9 -54.7 -54.4 -54.2 -53.9 -53.8 -53.0 -52.5 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 8 9 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 9 9 700-500 MB RH 53 51 52 52 50 48 48 47 46 44 43 41 41 GFS VTEX (KT) 6 6 6 6 5 5 3 2 1 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -3 -5 -9 -3 -14 -46 -67 -77 -74 -80 -82 -98 -103 200 MB DIV -18 1 19 3 -10 -7 -29 13 -17 -22 -15 -5 -17 700-850 TADV -3 2 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 -3 0 LAND (KM) 2501 2557 2526 2490 2454 2392 2336 2298 2266 2200 2096 1962 1843 LAT (DEG N) 25.4 25.6 25.7 25.9 26.1 26.3 26.6 26.6 26.5 26.0 25.5 25.2 25.3 LONG(DEG W) 41.2 41.8 42.3 42.8 43.2 44.1 44.8 45.2 45.5 46.0 46.9 48.2 49.5 STM SPEED (KT) 5 5 5 5 4 4 2 2 2 4 5 6 5 HEAT CONTENT 21 25 28 29 27 25 25 24 23 28 32 31 34 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):225/ 6 CX,CY: -3/ -3 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 711 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 23.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 30.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 5. 9. 15. 20. 23. 25. 27. 28. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 5. 6. 7. 5. -1. -9. -16. -20. -24. -29. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. 7. 7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -5. -7. -7. -7. -7. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -8. -9. -9. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 5. 7. 9. 10. 9. 3. -1. -3. -5. -8. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL992012 INVEST 09/03/12 06 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 2.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 15.8 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 23.0 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : -1.0 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 88.7 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.7 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 60.4 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 26.0 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 25.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 13% is 1.1 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 9% is 1.1 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL992012 INVEST 09/03/2012 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)