* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL992012 09/03/12 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 29 32 35 37 40 40 41 43 46 49 52 V (KT) LAND 25 27 29 32 35 37 40 40 41 43 46 49 52 V (KT) LGE mod 25 27 29 31 33 36 38 40 42 44 48 54 61 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 9 12 13 15 16 19 20 23 23 9 6 6 6 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 0 -2 -4 -2 4 -1 0 -5 -3 0 -2 1 SHEAR DIR 316 307 303 289 304 296 287 300 298 294 77 138 101 SST (C) 27.8 27.8 27.9 27.9 28.0 28.1 28.2 28.2 28.2 28.2 28.1 28.2 28.3 POT. INT. (KT) 132 131 133 133 134 135 136 135 136 135 133 136 138 ADJ. POT. INT. 115 112 113 114 114 114 113 112 113 111 110 114 116 200 MB T (C) -54.9 -54.5 -54.5 -54.5 -54.6 -55.1 -55.0 -55.5 -54.9 -55.5 -55.1 -55.1 -54.6 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 8 8 9 8 9 8 8 7 8 7 8 700-500 MB RH 55 56 52 52 53 48 48 45 43 42 40 38 36 GFS VTEX (KT) 7 6 6 6 6 4 4 2 2 2 2 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -18 -5 -5 -6 -1 -37 -49 -63 -48 -51 -47 -49 -60 200 MB DIV 19 -10 -1 22 17 -11 -24 0 -12 -11 -22 -37 -40 700-850 TADV -4 -3 1 2 1 1 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 LAND (KM) 2454 2499 2540 2503 2467 2394 2325 2296 2296 2338 2345 2306 2234 LAT (DEG N) 25.8 25.8 25.8 26.0 26.2 26.7 27.2 27.5 27.7 27.5 27.4 27.6 28.0 LONG(DEG W) 40.7 41.2 41.6 42.1 42.5 43.1 43.6 43.5 42.9 42.3 42.4 42.9 43.8 STM SPEED (KT) 6 4 4 5 4 4 2 2 3 1 1 3 4 HEAT CONTENT 17 20 24 26 28 26 23 24 25 24 25 25 24 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):230/ 10 CX,CY: -7/ -5 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 741 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 16.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 5. 9. 15. 20. 23. 25. 26. 27. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 5. 6. 8. 7. 4. 1. 0. 2. 2. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 7. 9. 10. 12. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -6. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. -6. -6. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 7. 10. 12. 15. 15. 16. 18. 21. 24. 27. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL992012 INVEST 09/03/12 00 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 2.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.1 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.4 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 9.4 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 88.6 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.7 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 60.8 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 23.0 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 14.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL992012 INVEST 09/03/2012 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)