* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL992012 09/02/12 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 22 25 28 32 38 43 47 47 47 48 52 55 V (KT) LAND 20 22 25 28 32 38 43 47 47 47 48 52 55 V (KT) LGE mod 20 21 21 23 24 28 32 35 38 41 44 48 53 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 6 9 17 21 18 24 21 21 25 21 25 7 11 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 0 -3 -4 -4 -6 -4 -3 -4 -2 -7 -3 -6 SHEAR DIR 225 222 228 235 260 275 283 305 290 292 294 300 349 SST (C) 27.7 27.8 27.9 27.9 28.0 28.2 28.3 28.3 28.2 28.2 28.0 27.9 27.9 POT. INT. (KT) 133 133 134 134 135 138 139 138 136 136 135 133 133 ADJ. POT. INT. 117 115 115 115 116 117 116 115 111 112 112 112 112 200 MB T (C) -55.6 -55.5 -55.1 -54.9 -54.7 -54.6 -54.7 -55.2 -55.2 -55.3 -54.7 -56.0 -56.0 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 9 10 9 9 10 9 9 9 8 7 7 700-500 MB RH 52 54 53 53 54 52 50 49 47 46 47 50 48 GFS VTEX (KT) 6 6 7 6 6 6 6 5 3 2 1 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -56 -46 -37 -39 -25 -19 -28 -45 -61 -60 -57 -47 -45 200 MB DIV -3 -8 0 19 14 20 5 1 -5 -4 -1 3 -37 700-850 TADV -8 -11 -5 -4 -4 0 1 0 2 2 4 1 0 LAND (KM) 2116 2189 2263 2340 2352 2273 2185 2125 2056 2014 1996 2052 2145 LAT (DEG N) 28.8 28.6 28.3 28.3 28.3 28.5 28.9 29.2 29.7 30.1 30.6 30.6 30.2 LONG(DEG W) 36.6 37.5 38.3 39.1 39.9 41.3 42.5 43.3 43.8 43.8 42.9 41.5 40.3 STM SPEED (KT) 11 8 7 7 7 6 5 4 2 3 5 6 6 HEAT CONTENT 15 14 13 12 15 17 20 22 21 19 17 15 18 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):235/ 14 CX,CY: -10/ -7 T-12 MAX WIND: 15 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 721 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 19.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 5. 11. 17. 22. 27. 29. 31. 32. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 4. 6. 8. 9. 8. 4. 1. -3. -5. -5. -6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 10. 11. 13. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -7. -7. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. -6. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 8. 12. 18. 23. 27. 27. 27. 28. 32. 35. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL992012 INVEST 09/02/12 00 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 2.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.3 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.6 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 4.4 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 95.5 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.7 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 58.2 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 13.8 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 15.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL992012 INVEST 09/02/2012 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)