* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL992012 08/01/12 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 32 35 39 45 50 55 56 56 55 54 53 V (KT) LAND 25 28 32 35 39 45 50 55 56 56 55 54 53 V (KT) LGE mod 25 28 30 32 35 39 44 49 53 55 56 55 53 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 4 10 13 6 10 9 10 15 13 21 24 32 25 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 9 6 2 6 10 4 6 0 2 3 1 0 0 SHEAR DIR 337 333 326 331 321 328 286 274 257 270 251 273 263 SST (C) 28.0 28.0 28.1 28.1 28.1 28.1 28.0 28.1 28.1 28.1 28.2 28.5 28.5 POT. INT. (KT) 138 138 139 139 138 138 138 139 140 140 142 146 146 ADJ. POT. INT. 144 140 140 139 139 138 138 140 141 140 142 145 143 200 MB T (C) -53.6 -54.0 -53.8 -53.2 -53.5 -53.8 -53.3 -53.7 -53.5 -53.8 -53.7 -53.8 -53.6 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 7 7 7 8 8 9 9 10 9 10 700-500 MB RH 66 65 67 64 64 62 61 59 58 60 61 63 61 GFS VTEX (KT) 10 10 12 11 11 11 12 13 12 13 11 11 9 850 MB ENV VOR 11 7 8 8 9 10 19 15 25 20 14 13 21 200 MB DIV 13 20 34 30 31 5 25 16 29 37 45 26 32 700-850 TADV -14 -14 -12 -10 -17 -5 -4 1 -2 4 6 9 2 LAND (KM) 1099 1018 950 897 845 753 705 704 515 396 439 167 78 LAT (DEG N) 9.7 10.0 10.3 10.6 10.8 11.2 11.7 12.4 13.3 14.2 15.5 16.5 17.4 LONG(DEG W) 43.0 44.2 45.4 46.5 47.6 49.7 51.9 54.4 57.0 59.9 62.7 65.8 68.8 STM SPEED (KT) 14 12 12 11 11 11 12 13 14 15 15 15 15 HEAT CONTENT 19 21 27 32 26 17 30 25 46 57 53 51 62 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 17 CX,CY: -16/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 669 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 96.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 11. 18. 23. 27. 31. 33. 35. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 6. 6. 3. 1. -2. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. -2. -4. -5. -7. -9. -10. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 1. 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 6. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 7. 10. 14. 20. 25. 30. 31. 31. 30. 29. 28. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL992012 INVEST 08/01/12 00 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 2.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.8 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.7 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 25.6 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 115.4 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 67.2 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 25.0 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 90.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.4 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 45% is 3.5 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 25% is 2.9 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 13% is 2.7 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 8% is 2.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL992012 INVEST 08/01/2012 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)