* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL992012 07/31/12 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 32 37 41 47 52 56 57 57 58 58 58 V (KT) LAND 25 28 32 37 41 47 52 56 57 57 58 58 58 V (KT) LGE mod 25 28 30 33 35 41 46 51 55 57 57 56 55 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 6 3 6 9 6 10 8 13 14 21 16 28 21 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 6 11 7 4 8 7 7 3 2 1 1 0 1 SHEAR DIR 322 4 332 353 329 325 305 290 260 257 268 268 261 SST (C) 27.8 27.9 28.0 28.0 28.0 28.0 28.0 28.1 28.2 28.1 28.1 28.2 28.5 POT. INT. (KT) 136 136 137 137 137 137 137 139 141 140 140 142 146 ADJ. POT. INT. 140 139 139 138 138 137 136 139 142 141 142 143 147 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -53.6 -54.0 -54.0 -53.3 -53.9 -53.3 -53.4 -53.2 -53.7 -53.1 -53.5 -53.2 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 6 7 7 8 8 9 10 9 10 700-500 MB RH 61 64 65 64 62 62 63 64 61 62 60 62 63 GFS VTEX (KT) 9 10 11 12 11 11 11 11 11 12 12 12 11 850 MB ENV VOR 8 18 16 14 10 12 17 23 25 30 30 19 14 200 MB DIV 7 20 35 48 40 40 7 14 14 35 44 31 44 700-850 TADV -10 -13 -12 -12 -10 -8 -1 -2 0 3 7 6 9 LAND (KM) 1249 1149 1058 991 935 821 746 686 656 425 356 395 191 LAT (DEG N) 9.6 9.9 10.1 10.4 10.6 11.0 11.4 11.7 12.4 13.0 14.0 15.0 16.2 LONG(DEG W) 41.3 42.6 43.8 44.9 46.0 48.2 50.3 52.5 55.1 57.8 60.8 63.9 67.1 STM SPEED (KT) 15 13 12 11 11 11 10 12 14 14 16 16 17 HEAT CONTENT 20 19 22 28 37 24 18 39 50 66 57 50 54 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 16 CX,CY: -15/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 655 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 92.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 11. 18. 23. 27. 31. 33. 35. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 8. 8. 8. 5. 4. 1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -4. -4. -3. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -2. -4. -6. -8. -9. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -8. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. -1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 7. 12. 16. 22. 27. 31. 32. 32. 33. 33. 33. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL992012 INVEST 07/31/12 18 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 2.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.2 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.2 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 30.0 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 113.8 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.9 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 66.0 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 25.2 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 86.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.4 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 48% is 3.7 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 29% is 3.5 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 19% is 3.8 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 9% is 2.6 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL992012 INVEST 07/31/2012 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)