* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL992012 07/31/12 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 22 24 27 30 37 44 50 56 58 61 59 60 V (KT) LAND 20 22 24 27 30 37 44 50 56 58 61 59 60 V (KT) LGE mod 20 21 21 22 24 26 29 33 36 39 41 42 42 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 7 5 3 7 4 4 8 7 11 14 14 20 24 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 7 8 12 8 11 15 7 5 4 4 3 5 5 SHEAR DIR 309 297 347 332 336 313 305 300 256 226 271 241 267 SST (C) 27.9 27.8 27.8 27.9 28.0 28.1 28.1 28.2 28.2 28.1 28.1 28.1 28.3 POT. INT. (KT) 137 135 135 136 137 138 138 140 141 139 140 140 142 ADJ. POT. INT. 142 138 137 138 139 139 139 141 142 140 141 140 140 200 MB T (C) -53.5 -53.1 -53.6 -54.0 -54.0 -53.3 -53.7 -53.0 -53.5 -52.8 -53.1 -52.8 -53.4 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 6 7 7 8 8 9 9 10 10 700-500 MB RH 63 64 66 64 64 64 61 58 56 56 57 62 63 GFS VTEX (KT) 8 8 9 10 10 11 13 14 16 16 17 15 15 850 MB ENV VOR 10 9 17 18 16 14 14 31 29 31 30 16 24 200 MB DIV -1 8 23 22 36 45 7 20 41 36 0 28 40 700-850 TADV -8 -10 -11 -11 -10 -10 -5 -5 3 0 8 6 12 LAND (KM) 1336 1289 1186 1093 1009 879 768 703 679 583 383 438 307 LAT (DEG N) 9.3 9.6 9.8 10.0 10.2 10.5 10.9 11.3 11.8 12.7 13.5 14.7 15.7 LONG(DEG W) 39.6 40.9 42.1 43.3 44.5 46.7 48.9 51.0 53.5 56.0 58.8 61.6 64.3 STM SPEED (KT) 14 13 12 12 11 11 11 12 13 13 14 15 13 HEAT CONTENT 14 19 18 20 25 34 19 24 43 53 65 53 54 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 13 CX,CY: -12/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 642 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 91.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 5. 12. 19. 25. 30. 34. 37. 39. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 5. 8. 10. 11. 11. 10. 9. 7. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -6. -7. -7. -7. -6. -5. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -3. -5. -8. -10. -12. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -8. -8. -9. -9. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 6. 6. 4. 3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 7. 10. 17. 24. 30. 36. 38. 41. 39. 40. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL992012 INVEST 07/31/12 12 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 2.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.3 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.3 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 17.6 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 118.6 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 67.0 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 19.2 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 81.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.3 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 44% is 3.4 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 24% is 2.8 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 14% is 2.8 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 8% is 2.4 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL992012 INVEST 07/31/2012 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)