* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL992012 07/30/12 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 21 22 25 27 34 45 55 63 67 72 75 75 V (KT) LAND 20 21 22 25 27 34 45 55 63 67 72 75 75 V (KT) LGE mod 20 21 21 22 23 26 30 35 42 49 54 58 61 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 4 5 8 10 4 6 5 5 1 3 3 12 12 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 7 8 8 5 9 10 10 8 9 8 10 4 1 SHEAR DIR 335 354 346 338 354 19 54 23 216 229 137 181 181 SST (C) 28.3 28.3 28.2 28.0 27.9 28.0 28.1 28.2 28.2 28.2 28.1 28.1 28.1 POT. INT. (KT) 140 141 140 137 136 137 138 139 139 140 139 139 139 ADJ. POT. INT. 138 144 143 140 138 139 138 140 139 139 138 139 139 200 MB T (C) -53.4 -53.6 -53.7 -53.6 -53.1 -54.0 -53.3 -53.9 -53.5 -53.8 -52.7 -53.3 -53.2 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 7 7 8 9 700-500 MB RH 63 64 63 62 66 66 68 68 69 64 61 61 58 GFS VTEX (KT) 8 9 9 11 10 10 12 13 15 17 16 16 14 850 MB ENV VOR 43 36 26 26 23 24 19 29 35 38 43 45 48 200 MB DIV 14 19 21 6 20 59 63 57 24 57 52 22 -9 700-850 TADV -4 -8 -10 -10 -8 -10 -7 -7 0 3 6 7 5 LAND (KM) 1370 1344 1329 1336 1303 1129 978 861 762 702 690 672 468 LAT (DEG N) 8.7 8.8 8.9 9.1 9.3 9.6 10.0 10.3 10.7 11.1 11.8 12.5 13.4 LONG(DEG W) 35.8 36.9 38.0 39.2 40.3 42.6 44.7 46.7 48.7 50.6 52.8 55.0 57.6 STM SPEED (KT) 7 11 11 12 12 11 10 10 10 10 11 12 13 HEAT CONTENT 9 9 9 12 20 27 28 36 31 44 48 49 65 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 4 CX,CY: -3/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 526 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 52.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 5. 12. 19. 25. 30. 34. 37. 39. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 9. 11. 13. 14. 15. 14. 13. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -7. -7. -7. -6. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 6. 9. 8. 6. 7. 6. 4. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -8. -10. -11. -11. -12. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 2. 3. 5. 6. 5. 4. 3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 5. 7. 14. 25. 35. 43. 47. 52. 55. 55. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL992012 INVEST 07/30/12 18 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 2.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.2 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.0 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 16.0 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 120.8 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 68.4 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 11.8 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 41.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 24% is 1.9 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 15% is 1.8 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 10% is 2.0 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 6% is 1.8 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL992012 INVEST 07/30/2012 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)