* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL992012 07/30/12 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 20 21 23 26 33 43 53 63 68 73 76 75 V (KT) LAND 20 20 21 23 26 33 43 53 63 68 73 76 75 V (KT) LGE mod 20 20 21 22 23 25 28 33 40 47 54 59 62 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 1 6 5 4 4 8 9 2 3 4 1 9 8 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 9 7 10 10 8 8 8 15 11 11 10 7 3 SHEAR DIR 358 323 340 337 3 13 31 82 83 153 164 205 221 SST (C) 28.3 28.3 28.2 28.0 27.9 27.9 28.1 28.2 28.2 28.3 28.2 28.1 28.1 POT. INT. (KT) 140 141 140 137 136 136 138 139 139 141 140 139 139 ADJ. POT. INT. 139 143 142 139 137 136 139 139 139 141 141 140 140 200 MB T (C) -53.3 -53.4 -53.6 -53.9 -53.6 -53.4 -54.0 -53.4 -53.3 -52.9 -53.1 -52.6 -52.9 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 7 6 6 6 6 6 6 7 8 9 9 700-500 MB RH 62 63 61 63 66 66 68 65 63 63 59 57 52 GFS VTEX (KT) 8 8 9 10 10 10 12 14 16 17 18 18 16 850 MB ENV VOR 48 42 35 33 32 30 28 36 33 35 32 38 31 200 MB DIV -3 9 25 34 20 64 39 63 27 37 26 34 32 700-850 TADV -5 -8 -10 -9 -7 -13 -10 -7 -4 -2 0 0 4 LAND (KM) 1382 1362 1351 1342 1321 1196 1020 898 798 704 670 695 515 LAT (DEG N) 8.7 8.9 9.0 9.1 9.2 9.5 9.8 10.1 10.5 10.8 11.4 12.3 13.3 LONG(DEG W) 35.5 36.5 37.5 38.6 39.7 41.8 44.0 45.9 47.9 49.9 52.0 54.4 57.0 STM SPEED (KT) 7 10 10 11 11 10 10 9 10 10 11 13 14 HEAT CONTENT 9 9 9 10 15 25 27 34 32 40 52 48 63 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 4 CX,CY: -3/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 497 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 21.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 5. 12. 19. 25. 30. 34. 37. 39. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 6. 8. 10. 12. 13. 14. 16. 15. 14. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -8. -8. -7. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 5. 8. 11. 10. 9. 7. 4. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -9. -10. -11. -11. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 5. 6. 7. 7. 6. 4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. -6. -6. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 3. 6. 13. 23. 33. 43. 48. 53. 56. 55. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL992012 INVEST 07/30/12 12 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 2.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.2 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.5 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 17.0 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 119.9 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 68.4 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 10.4 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 17.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 33% is 2.5 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 18% is 2.1 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL992012 INVEST 07/30/2012 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)