* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL982014 10/02/14 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 35 38 40 42 36 27 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 30 32 35 38 40 42 36 27 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 30 30 31 31 31 30 28 26 26 28 33 33 36 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 23 22 26 39 46 51 45 32 14 25 24 41 39 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -3 -1 -1 -3 -1 -2 -6 2 -3 5 3 0 SHEAR DIR 286 275 274 267 261 245 241 221 238 263 225 232 252 SST (C) 25.3 25.3 24.6 22.8 20.5 16.6 14.6 14.3 13.7 11.6 9.3 4.4 6.4 POT. INT. (KT) 109 108 102 90 80 70 67 67 67 65 65 63 64 ADJ. POT. INT. 95 92 87 78 71 65 63 63 63 63 63 N/A 63 200 MB T (C) -56.1 -56.3 -56.2 -56.0 -56.1 -55.8 -55.2 -55.6 -55.1 -54.9 -54.9 -54.0 -55.1 TH_E DEV (C) 4 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 69 69 66 62 59 54 50 41 40 47 41 42 47 MODEL VTX (KT) 9 11 12 12 13 13 10 7 4 2 LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 49 65 77 70 35 -11 -16 -36 -54 8 -23 -51 -116 200 MB DIV 36 52 81 58 37 58 -1 -35 -35 24 12 -2 -5 700-850 TADV 10 6 7 10 19 23 13 17 24 42 32 1 23 LAND (KM) 1047 932 821 723 627 442 262 103 29 -106 31 25 303 LAT (DEG N) 37.3 38.4 39.5 40.5 41.4 43.1 44.7 45.9 47.2 48.6 51.0 53.7 55.5 LONG(DEG W) 52.1 51.5 50.8 50.6 50.4 50.7 51.3 52.4 54.5 56.4 57.4 56.3 53.3 STM SPEED (KT) 15 12 11 10 9 8 8 9 9 11 13 12 12 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 25/ 18 CX,CY: 8/ 16 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 746 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 25.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -3. -2. 0. 2. 2. 1. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 2. 4. 7. 10. 11. 7. -2. -7. -11. -13. -17. -22. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 2. 3. 2. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 7. 9. 12. 13. 15. 18. 19. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 9. 11. 12. 14. 15. 15. THETA_E EXCESS -1. -2. -3. -4. -7. -10. -14. -18. -23. -27. -30. -32. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. -1. -4. -7. -9. -9. -9. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 8. 10. 12. 6. -3. -11. -19. -21. -26. -33. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL982014 INVEST 10/02/14 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 31.3 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.3 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.8 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 71.6 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 54.6 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 52.8 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 19.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 10% is 0.8 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL982014 INVEST 10/02/14 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL982014 INVEST 10/02/2014 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED