* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL982014 10/02/14 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 31 34 36 38 39 37 33 27 22 19 DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 30 31 34 36 38 39 37 33 27 26 29 DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 30 30 31 32 33 33 31 28 27 26 29 34 35 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 17 17 19 24 33 41 47 36 27 24 37 46 51 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -3 -4 0 -1 2 -1 -3 2 -1 0 7 5 SHEAR DIR 324 317 307 282 266 244 240 229 216 262 256 255 269 SST (C) 25.4 25.2 25.2 25.1 24.1 20.0 15.9 14.2 13.9 13.1 10.7 8.2 10.5 POT. INT. (KT) 110 108 107 106 99 79 69 67 66 65 64 65 67 ADJ. POT. INT. 97 93 92 90 84 70 65 63 63 62 62 63 65 200 MB T (C) -56.0 -56.1 -56.3 -56.0 -55.8 -55.9 -55.1 -55.6 -55.4 -55.2 -55.7 -55.4 -54.3 TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 3 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 67 70 71 68 64 57 55 47 41 42 43 42 42 MODEL VTX (KT) 0 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 31 49 76 84 65 19 -12 -11 -42 -40 -14 -21 -43 200 MB DIV 35 45 59 68 51 60 21 -26 -28 -10 16 4 -22 700-850 TADV 6 11 17 11 25 28 23 17 15 20 20 15 -2 LAND (KM) 1277 1153 1034 920 810 615 423 249 56 -18 -43 186 504 LAT (DEG N) 35.2 36.4 37.5 38.6 39.7 41.6 43.4 45.0 46.4 47.6 49.0 51.0 52.3 LONG(DEG W) 52.9 52.0 51.2 50.7 50.3 50.1 50.4 51.0 52.5 54.1 54.7 53.0 48.1 STM SPEED (KT) 15 13 12 12 11 9 9 8 8 7 9 13 17 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 30/ 16 CX,CY: 8/ 14 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 780 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 34.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 2. 4. 6. 8. 10. 7. 0. -6. -9. -12. -16. -23. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 2. 1. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 5. 8. 10. 12. 14. 16. 17. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 6. 8. 10. 12. 14. 15. 16. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -3. -6. -9. -12. -17. -21. -25. -28. -31. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -2. -3. -2. -2. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 4. 6. 8. 9. 7. 3. -3. -8. -11. -17. -25. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL982014 INVEST 10/02/14 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 22.2 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.4 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 72.4 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 61.3 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 51.6 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 29.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 13% is 1.1 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 8% is 1.0 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL982014 INVEST 10/02/14 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL982014 INVEST 10/02/2014 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)