* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL982014 10/01/14 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 36 40 43 48 48 41 35 30 24 22 16 V (KT) LAND 30 32 36 40 43 48 48 41 35 28 29 29 29 V (KT) LGE mod 30 30 31 32 34 36 35 32 29 28 29 30 30 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 17 17 16 16 23 36 46 43 27 22 24 24 37 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -2 -3 -5 -2 2 2 1 -2 -2 -3 4 5 SHEAR DIR 322 292 285 290 286 267 240 242 232 261 276 216 195 SST (C) 26.1 25.5 25.2 25.3 25.1 22.3 17.9 15.2 14.6 13.8 11.1 9.0 3.2 POT. INT. (KT) 117 111 108 108 106 88 73 68 67 67 66 66 65 ADJ. POT. INT. 103 97 93 93 90 77 67 64 64 64 64 64 N/A 200 MB T (C) -56.1 -56.0 -56.2 -56.5 -56.0 -55.7 -55.4 -54.9 -55.7 -55.5 -55.3 -54.7 -53.5 TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 5 3 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 66 69 71 73 70 62 58 53 42 45 51 46 54 MODEL VTX (KT) 5 6 11 11 11 13 13 10 8 9 6 8 8 850 MB ENV VOR 6 35 66 87 92 45 14 -4 -19 -55 -25 -28 -23 200 MB DIV 36 42 51 71 79 39 57 -12 -38 -41 20 35 31 700-850 TADV 21 6 2 6 9 31 34 25 12 15 38 0 -21 LAND (KM) 1395 1283 1146 1023 905 694 479 264 88 -15 -71 -72 -11 LAT (DEG N) 33.9 35.2 36.4 37.6 38.7 40.7 42.6 44.5 45.9 47.3 48.9 51.7 55.1 LONG(DEG W) 54.1 53.2 52.3 51.6 51.0 50.7 51.2 51.8 53.1 55.2 57.3 59.2 60.0 STM SPEED (KT) 16 14 14 13 11 10 10 9 9 10 13 16 17 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 30/ 17 CX,CY: 9/ 15 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 787 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 26.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 42.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 2. 4. 5. 5. 4. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 4. 6. 8. 10. 8. 1. -5. -8. -10. -11. -16. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 5. 7. 10. 12. 13. 15. 16. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 10. 12. 13. 15. 15. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -8. -12. -16. -20. -24. -27. -30. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 2. 3. 3. 6. 6. 3. 1. 1. -1. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -2. -3. -2. -2. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 6. 10. 13. 18. 18. 11. 5. 0. -6. -8. -14. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL982014 INVEST 10/01/14 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 17.7 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 26.1 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 71.6 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 65.2 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 55.8 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 38.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 14% is 1.2 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 8% is 1.1 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL982014 INVEST 10/01/14 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL982014 INVEST 10/01/2014 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)