* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL982014 08/28/14 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 27 29 31 36 40 46 51 55 61 67 70 V (KT) LAND 25 26 24 25 26 26 27 27 27 27 27 27 33 V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 23 24 25 26 27 27 27 27 27 27 36 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 21 14 10 18 21 12 15 10 10 11 7 3 3 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 0 -2 -5 -2 -5 2 -3 3 0 2 4 8 SHEAR DIR 277 301 277 279 294 271 280 278 302 335 322 356 241 SST (C) 28.8 28.6 28.5 28.4 28.6 28.9 29.4 29.7 30.1 30.4 30.8 31.2 31.2 POT. INT. (KT) 147 143 141 140 143 148 157 162 169 170 170 170 171 ADJ. POT. INT. 126 123 121 120 123 128 136 141 148 154 165 170 171 200 MB T (C) -51.6 -51.8 -51.9 -51.8 -51.9 -51.9 -51.8 -51.9 -51.7 -51.8 -51.8 -52.0 -51.8 TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 12 14 13 14 14 14 15 14 14 14 11 700-500 MB RH 48 48 51 54 55 58 60 58 59 57 54 53 53 GFS VTEX (KT) 6 6 6 4 3 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 4 1 14 19 41 43 50 24 23 7 28 19 44 200 MB DIV 0 1 15 22 9 16 16 10 6 13 0 -14 -3 700-850 TADV -10 -4 1 -5 -13 0 -10 -1 -6 -2 -3 0 0 LAND (KM) 72 20 -18 -58 -100 -191 -300 -429 -364 -267 -148 -7 78 LAT (DEG N) 26.0 25.8 25.6 25.5 25.3 25.2 25.0 25.0 24.9 24.8 24.6 24.4 24.3 LONG(DEG W) 96.5 97.0 97.5 98.0 98.5 99.5 100.7 102.0 103.2 104.4 105.8 107.5 109.3 STM SPEED (KT) 6 5 5 5 5 5 6 5 5 6 7 8 8 HEAT CONTENT 36 14 31 28 0 0 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):240/ 7 CX,CY: -5/ -2 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 580 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 9.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 5. 11. 17. 22. 26. 29. 32. 35. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 5. 6. 7. 7. 5. 5. 4. 4. 5. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. -7. -7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 4. 5. 6. 8. 8. 9. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -7. -7. -7. -7. -6. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 4. 6. 11. 15. 21. 26. 31. 36. 42. 45. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL982014 INVEST 08/28/14 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 16.8 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.9 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 62.4 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 97.8 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.4 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 21.8 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 9.4 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 6.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL982014 INVEST 08/28/14 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL982014 INVEST 08/28/2014 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)