* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL982014 08/27/14 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 27 28 30 33 37 41 45 48 50 52 53 V (KT) LAND 25 26 27 28 30 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 26 26 27 25 26 27 27 27 27 27 27 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 21 23 20 16 12 18 11 19 14 20 24 30 21 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -5 -3 -4 -4 0 -6 2 -5 2 -4 -3 -5 SHEAR DIR 240 255 276 289 281 293 253 274 270 293 312 325 321 SST (C) 29.5 29.3 29.0 28.7 28.5 28.4 28.5 28.8 29.2 29.4 29.6 29.7 29.8 POT. INT. (KT) 159 154 149 144 141 139 141 146 153 155 159 161 163 ADJ. POT. INT. 136 131 127 123 120 118 119 125 130 131 132 134 136 200 MB T (C) -51.7 -51.7 -51.9 -52.1 -52.1 -52.2 -52.3 -52.2 -52.3 -52.2 -52.4 -52.5 -52.9 TH_E DEV (C) 10 11 10 9 12 12 14 15 14 15 14 14 13 700-500 MB RH 44 45 45 47 49 54 56 56 56 54 51 44 41 GFS VTEX (KT) 7 6 5 5 5 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 6 6 5 -2 9 24 27 28 -1 -1 -27 -20 -22 200 MB DIV -11 -8 -5 -15 6 19 36 23 20 -5 -5 -3 -13 700-850 TADV 3 -3 -7 -4 0 -5 -2 -8 0 -1 2 -1 -4 LAND (KM) 201 154 107 60 12 -56 -134 -211 -310 -375 -440 -482 -571 LAT (DEG N) 26.7 26.6 26.4 26.2 26.0 26.0 26.1 26.2 26.7 27.2 27.8 28.0 28.1 LONG(DEG W) 95.3 95.8 96.2 96.7 97.1 97.8 98.6 99.4 100.5 101.2 101.8 102.2 103.1 STM SPEED (KT) 6 4 4 4 4 3 4 5 5 4 3 3 4 HEAT CONTENT 47 46 43 34 7 28 0 0 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):255/ 7 CX,CY: -6/ -1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 636 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 4.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 5. 10. 16. 21. 25. 27. 29. 30. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 5. 6. 7. 6. 4. 2. -1. -3. -6. -8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 8. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -8. -8. -7. -6. -6. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 12. 16. 20. 23. 25. 27. 28. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL982014 INVEST 08/27/14 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 18.5 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.7 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.1 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 60.2 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 102.4 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.4 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 35.4 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : -6.6 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 2.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL982014 INVEST 08/27/14 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL982014 INVEST 08/27/2014 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED