* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL982013 11/18/13 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 40 44 50 56 60 65 69 74 77 73 71 76 67 V (KT) LAND 40 44 50 56 60 65 69 74 77 73 71 76 67 V (KT) LGE mod 40 42 44 45 47 51 58 67 70 66 58 52 48 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 40 34 30 26 18 9 19 33 49 51 48 51 63 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 3 -3 -9 -6 0 0 2 -5 -4 -6 -2 -3 SHEAR DIR 184 166 160 191 228 259 220 209 215 226 226 253 273 SST (C) 27.3 26.7 26.1 25.7 25.3 24.9 25.1 24.7 24.0 22.7 21.0 19.0 19.0 POT. INT. (KT) 128 122 115 111 106 102 107 106 103 96 87 79 78 ADJ. POT. INT. 113 107 101 97 91 86 95 97 95 90 81 74 72 200 MB T (C) -56.2 -56.6 -57.4 -57.6 -57.8 -58.6 -58.7 -58.2 -58.2 -58.2 -58.7 -59.0 -59.3 TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 5 5 5 6 6 6 3 2 1 0 0 700-500 MB RH 60 57 54 50 47 47 45 40 36 32 35 43 40 GFS VTEX (KT) 26 30 32 33 32 29 25 26 28 27 28 40 38 850 MB ENV VOR 202 209 185 160 131 128 122 96 89 44 -10 -32 -47 200 MB DIV 105 97 56 59 45 40 24 70 41 20 32 17 0 700-850 TADV 14 3 -1 6 0 3 0 -7 -21 -6 -63 -13 19 LAND (KM) 1697 1749 1809 1701 1591 1524 1592 1574 1668 1872 1913 1429 1061 LAT (DEG N) 27.8 29.0 30.1 30.9 31.7 32.2 32.3 32.9 33.6 34.9 37.0 38.7 39.6 LONG(DEG W) 52.7 53.1 53.4 54.3 55.1 55.6 53.2 48.9 43.5 37.2 30.9 25.7 21.5 STM SPEED (KT) 11 12 11 11 7 4 14 21 25 27 25 19 17 HEAT CONTENT 13 1 9 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 5/ 9 CX,CY: 1/ 9 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 608 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 22.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 40.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 2. 4. 5. 5. 3. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 2. -2. -7. -14. -19. -23. -29. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 8. 10. 12. 13. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 1. 3. 5. 7. 11. 16. 19. 22. 26. 29. 31. 34. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -6. -9. -12. -15. -18. -21. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 1. 2. 3. 3. 1. -2. -2. 0. -2. 0. 10. 8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 8. 9. 9. 9. 8. 7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 10. 16. 20. 25. 29. 34. 37. 33. 31. 36. 27. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL982013 INVEST 11/18/13 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 29.7 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 22.3 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.6 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 64.2 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 61.9 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 4.6 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 72.4 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 35.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 11% is 0.9 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL982013 INVEST 11/18/13 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL982013 INVEST 11/18/2013 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 2( 2) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED