* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL982013 11/18/13 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 39 45 52 57 65 70 76 79 79 74 65 56 V (KT) LAND 35 39 45 52 57 65 70 76 79 79 74 65 56 V (KT) LGE mod 35 35 36 37 38 41 48 59 66 65 59 53 48 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 35 37 33 25 21 14 12 24 42 41 47 36 42 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 2 -2 -8 -2 -4 -1 -6 0 -7 -2 -3 SHEAR DIR 183 178 162 147 183 274 206 196 203 224 246 271 281 SST (C) 27.6 27.3 26.7 26.2 25.6 25.0 24.9 24.4 22.8 21.3 18.8 17.8 16.6 POT. INT. (KT) 131 128 122 117 110 102 105 105 96 90 80 75 72 ADJ. POT. INT. 116 114 107 103 96 86 92 96 90 84 75 70 68 200 MB T (C) -56.3 -56.3 -56.8 -57.5 -57.9 -58.4 -58.9 -58.6 -58.4 -58.4 -59.0 -59.6 -59.6 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 5 5 5 5 6 6 4 1 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 59 61 60 53 50 45 50 41 43 44 39 34 28 GFS VTEX (KT) 23 27 31 34 35 33 28 27 28 28 24 18 15 850 MB ENV VOR 205 202 212 193 160 118 145 133 95 82 60 -44 -69 200 MB DIV 94 102 103 60 65 38 15 63 74 61 13 27 16 700-850 TADV 8 10 4 -1 5 7 -1 -12 -14 -10 3 32 39 LAND (KM) 1622 1678 1741 1766 1680 1516 1523 1469 1417 1595 1861 1474 1254 LAT (DEG N) 26.6 27.8 28.9 30.0 31.0 32.0 32.4 33.6 35.5 37.7 40.0 41.8 44.0 LONG(DEG W) 52.7 52.9 53.1 53.9 54.6 56.2 54.9 50.7 45.0 38.0 31.1 27.0 24.6 STM SPEED (KT) 10 12 12 12 10 4 12 22 28 30 23 16 14 HEAT CONTENT 29 14 1 10 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 0/ 7 CX,CY: 0/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 615 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 32.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 8. 9. 9. 8. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 1. -4. -9. -14. -17. -21. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 9. 11. 12. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 1. 2. 4. 6. 10. 15. 18. 21. 25. 28. 31. 34. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -8. -12. -15. -18. -21. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 1. 3. 6. 7. 7. 4. 2. 3. 3. -1. -7. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 11. 11. 10. 9. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 10. 17. 23. 30. 35. 41. 44. 44. 39. 30. 21. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL982013 INVEST 11/18/13 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 30.4 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.3 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 67.2 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 72.2 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 10.8 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 84.8 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 26.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 11% is 1.0 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL982013 INVEST 11/18/13 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL982013 INVEST 11/18/2013 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 2( 2) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)